老铺黄金（06181）：业绩增长亮眼，品牌势能强劲

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market benchmark [4][7]. Core Insights - The company achieved impressive sales growth of 31.4 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 220.3%. Revenue reached 27.3 billion yuan, also up 221.0%. Gross profit was 10.3 billion yuan, with a growth of 193.4%, although the gross margin decreased to 37.6% due to rising gold prices following two price adjustments in 2025 [2][4]. - The net profit for the year was 4.9 billion yuan, marking a 230.5% increase, while adjusted net profit reached 5.0 billion yuan, up 234.9% [2]. - For Q1 2026, the company expects sales performance (including tax revenue) to be between 19.0 to 20.0 billion yuan, with revenue around 16.5 to 17.5 billion yuan and net profit estimated at 3.6 to 3.8 billion yuan [2]. Sales Channels and Growth - The company reported significant growth in its offline channels, with store revenue reaching 22.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 204.0%, accounting for 82.9% of total revenue. Same-store sales grew by 160.6% [3]. - As of the end of 2025, the company had opened 45 self-operated stores, adding 10 new stores during the year and optimizing 9 existing stores in commercial centers [3]. - The company opened its first overseas store in Singapore's Marina Bay Sands on June 21, 2025, marking a significant milestone in its international expansion [3]. - Online sales surged to 4.7 billion yuan, a remarkable growth of 341.3%, increasing its share of total revenue to 17.1% [3]. - The loyalty program saw membership grow to approximately 610,000, a 74.3% increase year-on-year, indicating a growing consumer base [3]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 8.48 billion yuan, 11.11 billion yuan, and 13.49 billion yuan for the years 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 13x, 10x, and 8x [4][6]. - Revenue forecasts for the upcoming years are as follows: 43.54 billion yuan in 2026, 56.98 billion yuan in 2027, and 69.23 billion yuan in 2028, with year-on-year growth rates of 59.45%, 30.89%, and 21.50% respectively [6][8].