古茗（01364）：2H25收入及利润均表现靓丽

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 36.73 [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a strong performance in 2025 with total revenue of HKD 12.914 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 46.9%, and a net profit of HKD 3.109 billion, up 110.3% year-on-year [10]. - The adjusted net profit for the year was HKD 2.575 billion, reflecting a 66.9% increase year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 19.9%, up 2.4 percentage points year-on-year [10]. - The company is expanding its product offerings, including the successful introduction of coffee products, which has contributed to revenue growth and improved store performance [5][10]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a gross margin of 33.0% in 2025, an increase of 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, supported by economies of scale and effective cost control [7]. - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of HKD 0.50 per share, totaling HKD 1.189 billion, which corresponds to a payout ratio of 33.7% [7]. - The forecast for adjusted net profit is revised upwards to HKD 3.219 billion for 2026 and HKD 3.952 billion for 2027, with an introduction of a forecast for 2028 at HKD 4.773 billion [8]. Operational Metrics - The company's GMV (Gross Merchandise Value) reached HKD 32.7 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 46.1%, and the average daily GMV per store was HKD 0.78 million, up 20.0% year-on-year [5]. - The number of stores increased to 13,554 by the end of 2025, a growth of 36.7% year-on-year, with a net addition of 4,292 stores during the year [6]. - The average revenue contribution from a single franchise store was approximately HKD 758,000, reflecting a 6.9% increase year-on-year [6]. Valuation Metrics - The adjusted PE ratio for 2026 is projected at 24 times, reflecting a premium due to the company's superior growth prospects [8]. - The company’s adjusted EPS is forecasted to be HKD 1.35 for 2026, HKD 1.66 for 2027, and HKD 2.01 for 2028 [8]. - The company maintains a strong return on equity (ROE) of 65.27% for 2025, projected to decrease to 55.17% in 2026 [4].