古茗：2H25收入及利润均表现靓丽-20260327

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of HKD 36.73 [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a strong performance in 2025, with total revenue reaching HKD 12.914 billion, a year-on-year increase of 46.9%, and a net profit of HKD 3.109 billion, up 110.3% year-on-year [10]. - The adjusted net profit for the year was HKD 2.575 billion, reflecting a 66.9% increase year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 19.9%, up 2.4 percentage points [10]. - The company has successfully expanded its product offerings, including the introduction of coffee products, which contributed to the growth in same-store sales and overall revenue [5][10]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a gross profit margin of 33.0% in 2025, an increase of 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, driven by scale effects and improved supply chain management [7]. - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of HKD 0.50 per share, totaling HKD 1.189 billion, which corresponds to a payout ratio of 33.7% [7]. - The forecast for adjusted net profit is revised upwards to HKD 3.219 billion for 2026 and HKD 3.952 billion for 2027, with an introduction of a new forecast for 2028 at HKD 4.773 billion [8]. Operational Metrics - The company's GMV (Gross Merchandise Value) for 2025 was HKD 32.7 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 46.1%, with an average daily GMV per store of HKD 0.78 million, up 20.0% year-on-year [5]. - The number of stores increased to 13,554 by the end of 2025, a 36.7% increase year-on-year, with a focus on expanding into second-tier and lower-tier cities [6]. - The average revenue contribution from a single franchise store reached approximately HKD 758,000, a 6.9% increase year-on-year, indicating a steady improvement in store performance [6]. Valuation Metrics - The adjusted EPS (Earnings Per Share) for 2025 is projected at HKD 1.08, with a PE (Price to Earnings) ratio of 20.68 [4]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong ROE (Return on Equity) of 65.27% in 2025, reflecting its efficient use of equity capital [4]. - The company’s valuation is supported by a competitive growth outlook, with a target PE of 24x for 2026, reflecting a premium due to its superior growth prospects [8].