珍酒李渡（06979）：——珍酒李渡6979.HK 2025年业绩点评：25年调整去库，积极推进万商联盟

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [6]. Core Insights - In 2025, the company reported a revenue of 3.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 48.3%, and a net profit of 538 million yuan, down 59.3% year-on-year. The adjusted net profit was 523 million yuan, reflecting a 68.8% decrease [1][4]. - The company is undergoing a channel inventory reduction phase, which has led to significant revenue declines across its brands. The revenue breakdown for 2025 shows declines for its brands: Zhenjiu (-57.11%), Lidou (-17.33%), Xiangjiao (-41.64%), and Kaikouxiao (-69.7%) [2]. - The company is actively reducing inventory for its Zhenjiu brand due to weak market demand and has introduced new products to stimulate growth, including high-end offerings [2][3]. Financial Performance - The gross margin for 2025 was 58.5%, slightly down from 2024, with brand-specific margins showing varied performance. Zhenjiu's margin decreased due to lower contributions from high-end products, while Lidou's margin remained relatively stable [3]. - The sales expense ratio increased to 30.63%, up 7.8 percentage points year-on-year, driven by increased marketing efforts. The management expense ratio also rose to 15.5%, reflecting fixed costs amid revenue pressure [3]. - The adjusted net profit margin for 2025 was 14.3%, down 9.4 percentage points year-on-year, indicating the impact of rising expense ratios on profitability [3]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been revised down to 665 million yuan and 806 million yuan, respectively, representing reductions of 51% and 44% from previous estimates. A new forecast for 2028 projects an adjusted net profit of 954 million yuan [4][5]. - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 41 for 2026, 34 for 2027, and 28 for 2028, suggesting a valuation that reflects anticipated recovery in demand for mid to high-end liquor [4][5].