新集能源（601918）：Q4煤炭售价成本持续改善，资本开支即将达峰分红提升可期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the coal price and cost have shown continuous improvement, with expectations for sustained performance in the upcoming quarters. The company reported a revenue of 12.28 billion yuan in 2025, a decrease of 3.51% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.136 billion yuan, down 10.73% year-on-year [1][2] - The coal segment has seen a year-on-year increase in production and sales, with coal production reaching 22.1696 million tons in 2025, up 3.01% year-on-year, and sales volume increasing by 4.35% [2] - The electricity segment faced challenges in Q4, with a significant decline in power generation, but upcoming new power units are expected to mitigate the impact of falling electricity prices [3] - The company is positioned for high dividend potential following a peak in capital expenditures, with a projected increase in free cash flow as new power plants come online [5] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 12.28 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.136 billion yuan, reflecting a decline from the previous year. The Q4 performance showed a revenue of 3.271 billion yuan, with a net profit of 660 million yuan, marking a 15.99% increase year-on-year [1][6] - The average coal sales price in 2025 was 532.48 yuan per ton, down 6.16% year-on-year, while the cost of goods sold was 322.76 yuan per ton, a decrease of 4.98% [2] Coal Segment - The company reported a coal production of 22.1696 million tons in 2025, with a 3.01% increase year-on-year. Q4 saw a production of 5.3659 million tons, down 9.74% year-on-year [2] - The coal segment's revenue and costs have shown improvement over two consecutive quarters, leading to a significant increase in gross profit [2] Electricity Segment - The company generated 137.91 billion kWh of electricity in 2025, a 12.53% increase year-on-year, but Q4 saw a decline in generation by 17.59% year-on-year [3] - The average electricity price was 0.3762 yuan per MWh, down 7.45% year-on-year, with expectations for new power units to come online in 2026 to counteract price pressures [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 2.142 billion yuan in 2026, with a projected PE ratio of 9.66 [7] - The coal-electricity integration model is anticipated to provide stable profitability as new power plants are completed [5]