Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a current price of HKD 26.48 and a target value of HKD 34.22 [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a strong performance in 2025, with revenue reaching RMB 12.91 billion, a year-on-year increase of 47%, and a net profit of RMB 3.11 billion, up 110% year-on-year [9]. - The company is expanding its store network aggressively, adding 4,292 new stores while closing 652, resulting in a total of 13,554 stores, a 37% increase year-on-year [9]. - The average daily GMV per store increased by 20% year-on-year to RMB 0.78 million, with a total GMV of RMB 32.7 billion, reflecting a 46% year-on-year growth [9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecast: Expected to grow from RMB 8.79 billion in 2024 to RMB 23.52 billion in 2028, with growth rates of 14.5%, 46.9%, 27.1%, 21.6%, and 17.8% respectively [4]. - EBITDA: Projected to increase from RMB 1.97 billion in 2024 to RMB 5.93 billion in 2028 [4]. - Net Profit: Non-GAAP net profit is expected to rise from RMB 1.53 billion in 2024 to RMB 4.72 billion in 2028, with growth rates of 5.9%, 68.1%, 27.2%, 22.0%, and 18.4% respectively [4]. - Profitability Ratios: Non-GAAP ROE is forecasted to decline from 73.9% in 2024 to 35.3% in 2028, while the Non-GAAP net profit margin is expected to improve to 20.1% by 2028 [4][9]. Store Expansion and Market Strategy - The company has a strong focus on coffee, with over 1.2 million stores equipped with coffee machines by the end of 2025, achieving a penetration rate of 89% [9]. - The expansion strategy includes a significant presence in second-tier and lower cities, with 82% of new stores located in these areas, and 44% in rural towns [9]. Profitability Improvement - The company achieved a gross margin of 33.0% in 2025, an increase of 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 19.9% [9].
古茗（01364）：25年业绩超预期，同店开店展望积极