Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a 78% year-on-year increase in adjusted core profit for 2025, with revenues projected at 12.914 billion yuan, representing a 46.9% increase [1][9] - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of 0.50 HKD per share, with a payout ratio of approximately 40% [1] - The company is focusing on store expansion and product diversification, with a net increase of 3,640 stores in 2025, bringing the total to 13,554 stores, a 36.7% year-on-year increase [2][12] Financial Performance - For 2025, the company anticipates a revenue of 12.914 billion yuan and an adjusted net profit of 2.575 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 66.9% [1][5] - The average GMV per store is projected to be 2.862 million yuan, with a 21.3% increase year-on-year [3][14] - The gross margin is expected to improve to 33.0%, a 2.4 percentage point increase, with the adjusted net profit margin rising to 19.9% [3][17] Store Expansion and Market Strategy - The company plans to maintain rapid store growth in 2026, with expectations of net new stores matching 2025 levels, focusing on regions with lower density but better performance [2][12] - The company is enhancing its store model with the sixth-generation store renovations, aiming to exceed 10,000 stores by year-end [2][19] Future Projections - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been raised to 3.21 billion yuan and 3.90 billion yuan, respectively, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 21.4% from 2025 to 2028 [4][19] - The company is expected to continue driving same-store sales growth through product innovation and channel expansion, particularly in rural areas [4][19]
古茗（01364）：2025年经调核心利润同增78%，拓店与扩品类双轮驱动