Milkground(SH:600882) GF SECURITIES·2026-03-28 14:26Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a current price of 19.08 CNY and a fair value of 21.70 CNY [5]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 5.633 billion CNY in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 118 million CNY, up 4.3% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items surged by 235.9% to 160 million CNY [5]. - In Q4 2025, the company experienced a significant revenue acceleration, with a total of 1.68 billion CNY, marking a 34.1% increase year-on-year. The cheese business performed particularly well, with revenues of 1.31 billion CNY in Q4, up 39.0% year-on-year [5]. - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, leading to a substantial increase in net profit margin, which improved by 1.8 percentage points to 2.8% in 2025 [5]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 6.505 billion CNY in 2026, with a growth rate of 15.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 357 million CNY, reflecting a growth of 200.9% [3][5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.70 CNY in 2026, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 27.3 [3][5]. - The return on equity (ROE) is anticipated to improve to 7.3% in 2026, with further increases expected in subsequent years [3][5]. Business Performance - The company has maintained its leading market share in cheese products, with the cheese stick market share continuing to grow, and it holds the top position in the mozzarella segment [5]. - The overall gross margin for 2025 was reported at 29.0%, with expectations for improvement as the company expands its B-end business [5]. - The company has implemented various cost-cutting measures and efficiency strategies, which are expected to yield further improvements in the expense ratios in 2026 [5].