海底捞（06862）：海底捞2025年报业绩点评：主品牌同店改善，红石榴计划有望提速

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in same-store sales in the second half of 2025, with significant growth in takeout and other restaurant businesses [2]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with projected net profits for 2026-2028 showing increases of 14%, 10%, and 11% respectively [10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 42,755 million RMB in 2024 to 57,284 million RMB by 2028, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10% [4]. - Gross profit is expected to increase from 25,808 million RMB in 2024 to 32,854 million RMB in 2028 [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to decline to 4,050 million RMB in 2025, before rebounding to 5,634 million RMB by 2028 [4]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 16.72 in 2025 to 12.70 in 2028, indicating a potentially more attractive valuation over time [4]. Revenue Breakdown - In 2025, the restaurant operating revenue is expected to be 375.43 billion RMB, a decrease of 7% year-on-year, while takeout revenue is projected to grow by 112% to 26.58 billion RMB [10]. - Other restaurant operations are anticipated to see a 215% increase in revenue, reaching 15.21 billion RMB [10]. - The company plans to expand its franchise operations, with a significant increase in franchise revenue projected at 2.7 billion RMB, up 1519% year-on-year [10]. Store Count and Performance - By the end of 2025, the company is expected to have 1,304 self-operated stores, a net decrease of 51 stores from the previous year, while franchise stores are projected to increase by 66 [10]. - Same-store sales are expected to decline by 7% in 2025, with a slight improvement in the second half of the year [10]. - The overall table turnover rate is projected to be 3.9 times, a decrease of 0.2 times year-on-year [10]. Dividend Policy - The interim dividend is set at 0.338 HKD per share, with a final dividend of 0.384 HKD per share, totaling 35.41 billion RMB in dividends, representing a payout ratio of 87% [10].