中国财险（02328）：承保推动业绩增长，分红比率小幅提升

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a current price of HKD 14.80 and a fair value of HKD 20.27 [9]. Core Insights - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 25.5% year-on-year, driven by improvements in both underwriting and investment performance. The underwriting profit saw a significant increase of 119.4% year-on-year, benefiting from a 1.3 percentage point decrease in the combined ratio (COR) [9]. - The investment income rose by 12.8% year-on-year, with an investment yield of 5.8%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points. Despite a rising equity market, the growth in investment yield was weaker than that of life insurance companies due to the allocation of 63.8% of equity assets being recorded in Other Comprehensive Income (OCI) [9]. - The report highlights an improvement in the expense ratio, leading to a notable reduction in the overall cost ratio. The annual COR decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 97.5%, with the expense ratio improving by 2.2 percentage points, primarily due to the deepening of the integrated reporting system [9]. Financial Forecast - Total premium income is projected to reach RMB 538,055 million in 2024, with a growth rate of 4.3%. This is expected to continue growing to RMB 610,364 million by 2028, maintaining a growth rate of around 3.2% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow from RMB 32,173 million in 2024 to RMB 55,307 million by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 16.8% [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from RMB 1.45 in 2024 to RMB 2.49 in 2028, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio projected to decline from 9.02 to 5.25 over the same period [4]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a dividend of RMB 0.68 per share, representing a year-on-year increase of 25.9%, with a payout ratio of 37.46%, slightly up from 37.3% in the previous year. This indicates a strong dividend yield, making the stock attractive to investors [9].