牧原股份：龙头稳健经营，分红彰显长期价值-20260329

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4][12]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 144.145 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.49%. However, the total profit decreased by 16.33% to 15.81 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 13.39% to 15.487 billion yuan [2][4]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 4.27 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 2.435 billion yuan (including tax) [2][3]. Operational Analysis - The company sold 77.981 million pigs in 2025 and plans to maintain a slaughtering volume between 75 million and 81 million pigs in 2026. The complete breeding cost for 2025 was 12 yuan/kg, down by 2.0 yuan/kg year-on-year, with a target of 11.5 yuan/kg for 2026 [3]. - The slaughtering business saw a significant increase, with 28.66 million pigs processed in 2025, a 129% year-on-year growth, achieving a capacity utilization rate of 98.8% and a gross margin increase to 2.67% [3]. - The net cash flow from operating activities reached 30.056 billion yuan in 2025, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 54.15%, down by 4.53 percentage points from the beginning of the year [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 5.7 billion yuan, 34.1 billion yuan, and 27.8 billion yuan for the years 2026 to 2028, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.00 yuan, 5.91 yuan, and 4.80 yuan [4]. - The projected P/E ratios for the same years are 49.9, 8.4, and 10.3 times, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [4].