煤焦周度观点-20260329

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coal and coke prices have corrected after surging last week, but considering the situation of roll - over and short - selling after the widening of the monthly spread, the overall prices should be treated as wide - range fluctuations [6]. - The trading logic of the market mainly focuses on two aspects. Firstly, due to geopolitical disturbances, the energy attribute of coking coal has fermented. The price of overseas energy products has risen, leading to an increase in the shipping cost and arrival price of imported coal in the domestic market, intensifying the inversion of the internal - external price difference. Coking coal has attracted more secondary - market funds, and the precipitation fund volume has increased from 9.527 billion yuan at the beginning of the year to 11.337 billion yuan. Secondly, affected by the rise in energy - chemical prices, the profit of coking plants has improved, and there is an expectation of capacity utilization repair. The replenishment behavior has tightened the spot market of coking coal, and the price is expected to continue to rise. In the short term, investors are advised to be cautious and sell out - of - the - money call options [6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Coal and Coke Weekly Viewpoint Supply - Domestic supply: Some coal mines in the main producing areas have limited production due to reasons such as working - face relocation or other underground issues, resulting in a decrease in overall supply. A coal mine in Lvliang has stopped production due to resource exhaustion, causing a significant decline in raw coal production. The weekly raw coal output of sample coal mines decreased by 165,400 tons to 12.3678 million tons, and the clean coal output decreased by 62,800 tons to 6.1265 million tons. The capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.15% to 86.04%. In terms of imports, the number of customs - cleared vehicles at the Ganqimao Port has remained high. From March 23 to March 26, the port cleared customs for 4 days, with an average daily clearance of 1,400 vehicles, a week - on - week increase of 15 vehicles [3]. Demand - Steel plants are in the stage of resuming production. The pig iron output has risen to 2.3109 million tons, and the demand for raw materials has increased. The first round of price increase for coke will be implemented on April 1 [4]. Inventory - The total inventory of coking coal at all levels has increased by 445,000 tons week - on - week. Except for the mine end, inventories at other levels have accumulated. The inventory at the coal mine end has decreased by 386,000 tons. The independent coking plants' coking coal inventory has increased by 425,000 tons compared with last week [5]. Coal and Coke Fundamental Data Changes | Category | Coal | Coke | | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | FW raw coal 8.753 million tons (- 55,600 tons); FW clean coal 4.4588 million tons (- 26,600 tons); Independent coking plants' daily average 64,800 tons (+ 500 tons); Steel mill coking enterprises' daily average 47,300 tons (+ 0 tons) | - | | Demand | Pig iron output 2.3109 million tons (+ 29,400 tons) | Pig iron output 2.3109 million tons (+ 29,400 tons) | | Inventory | MS total inventory + 445,000 tons; Mine raw coal - 170,500 tons; Mine clean coal - 166,400 tons; Independent coking - 42,000 tons; Independent coking + 425,000 tons; Steel mills + 35,000 tons; Steel mill coking + 85,000 tons; Ports + 209,000 tons; Ports + 49,000 tons; Port + 38,000 tons | - | | Profit | Commodity coal 490 yuan/ton (+ 23 yuan/ton) | Coking enterprises' average profit 47 yuan/ton (- 30 yuan/ton) | | Warehouse receipt | Meng 5 Tangshan warehouse receipt 1,316 yuan/ton | Port quasi - dry quenched coke warehouse receipt 1,700 yuan/ton | [8] Coking Coal Fundamental Data Supply - Weekly data shows the production and capacity utilization rate of 523 sample mines, including raw coal and clean coal production. Monthly data shows the production of coking bituminous coal and coking clean coal. The customs - cleared volume of Mongolian coal at Ganqimao, Mandula, and Ceke ports and the total customs - cleared volume of the three ports are also presented [10][12][13]. Inventory - Pit - mouth inventory: The raw coal inventory of sample coal mines decreased by 129,100 tons to 1.4169 million tons week - on - week, and the clean coal inventory decreased by 110,000 tons to 972,000 tons. Port inventory: The coking coal port inventory was 2.6944 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 44,900 tons. Coking plant inventory: The inventory and average available days of coking coal in independent coking plants are presented, including overall and regional data. Steel mill inventory: The inventory and average available days of coking coal in 247 steel enterprises are presented, including overall and regional data [23][25][28] Coke Fundamental Data Supply - Capacity utilization rate: The capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants and steel enterprises is presented, including overall and regional data. Production: The daily output of independent coking plants and steel enterprises is presented, including overall and historical data [36][41][43]. Inventory - Coking plant inventory: The inventory of independent coking plants is presented, including overall and historical data. Steel mill inventory: The inventory, average available days, and regional data of steel mill coking plants are presented. Total inventory of all samples: The total inventory of coke is presented, including historical data. Supply - demand difference: The supply - demand difference of coke and the daily output of pig iron are presented [46][47][56]. Profit - The disk profit of coking per ton and the average profit of independent coking enterprises per ton are presented [61]. Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices Futures - Coking coal futures: The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of coking coal 2605 and 2609 futures contracts from March 20 to March 27, 2026 are presented. Coke futures: The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of coke 2605 and 2609 futures contracts from March 20 to March 27, 2026 are presented [64][67]. Monthly Spread - The monthly spreads of coking coal and coke futures contracts in different years are presented [72][74]. Spot - The spot prices of coking coal and coke, including different varieties and regions, are presented [78]. Basis - The basis of coking coal 2605, 2609 and coke 2605, 2609 is presented [80].