大类资产配置周报20260327-20260329

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - From March 23rd to March 27th, 2026, the equity market fluctuated downward overall. The A - share market and the Hong Kong stock market both declined, while the convertible bond market recovered, the bond market was strong, and the commodity futures performance was differentiated [5][10][11]. - The equity market's weekly trend was first down and then up. The initial decline was due to the escalation of the US - Iran conflict and the Fed's hawkish stance, and the subsequent rise was driven by Trump's signal of easing and indirect negotiations between the US and Iran [14]. - The convertible bond market went up this week, but the trading activity decreased significantly, and it may still be affected by the US - Iran conflict in the short term [18]. - The bond market yield mainly declined this week. The initial pressure was due to inflation concerns caused by high oil prices, and the subsequent decline in inflation expectations was affected by the easing of the US - Israel - Iran situation, but the rebound of risk assets restricted the decline of interest rates. The liquidity was stable near the end - of - quarter point [22]. - The South China Commodity Index showed a differentiated performance this week, with precious metals leading the decline and metals strengthening. Gold prices continued to fluctuate downward, and the short - term trend may still be volatile [32][33]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. This Week's Performance of Major Asset Classes - The equity market fluctuated downward. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.1%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.76%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.68%, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index fell 1.41%, the Hang Seng Index fell 1.29%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 1.94%. The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 10.49 trillion yuan [5][10][13]. - The convertible bond market recovered. The China Securities Convertible Bond Index rose 1.28% this week and fell 5% in the past month; the Shanghai Convertible Bond Index rose 1.06% this week and fell 5.56% in the past month [5][10][13]. - The bond market was strong. The yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year China Bond Treasury bonds all declined [5][10][22]. - The commodity futures performance was differentiated. COMEX gold fell 0.05%, COMEX silver rose 2.89%, LME copper rose 2.59%, LME aluminum rose 2.9%, WTI crude oil rose 1.44%, SHFE rebar rose 0.03%, CBOT soybeans fell 0.09%, and CBOT corn fell 0.97% [5][11][13]. 2. Performance of the Equity Market - Stocks - The equity market fluctuated downward this week. The Shanghai Composite Index adjusted at the beginning of the week, then rose, declined slightly on Thursday, and closed up on Friday [14]. - Most industries fell this week. Non - bank finance, comprehensive finance, computer, media, national defense and military industry, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery led the decline, while power and public utilities, basic chemicals, and non - ferrous metals led the rise [14]. - The market rotation was still active this week. The rebound was mainly driven by previous main lines such as computing power, non - ferrous metals, and power. In addition, the innovative drug and new energy sectors also performed well [14]. 3. Performance of the Equity Market - Convertible Bonds - The equity market fluctuated weakly this week, but the convertible bond market rose. The China Securities Convertible Bond Index rose 1.28% and the Shanghai Convertible Bond Index rose 1.06% this week. The trading volume of convertible bonds and underlying stocks decreased significantly compared with last week [18]. - The convertible bond market may still be affected by the US - Iran conflict in the short term [18]. 4. Performance of the Fixed - Income Market - The bond market yield mainly declined this week. The yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year China Bond Treasury bonds all declined [22]. - The initial pressure on the bond market was due to inflation concerns caused by high oil prices, and the subsequent decline in inflation expectations was affected by the easing of the US - Israel - Iran situation, but the rebound of risk assets restricted the decline of interest rates [22]. - The liquidity was stable near the end - of - quarter point, which may have moderated the adjustment range of the bond market [22]. 5. Performance of the Commodity Market - The South China Commodity Index showed a differentiated performance this week. The comprehensive index fell 0.25%, the energy and chemical index fell 0.12%, the metal index rose 1.45%, the precious metal index fell 2.75%, the industrial product index rose 0.04%, and the agricultural product index fell 1.15% [32]. - The gold price continued to fluctuate downward this week. The short - term trend may still be volatile, and it may need the easing of the US - Israel - Iran situation to strengthen again [33].