CMES(SH:601872) GF SECURITIES·2026-03-29 14:08Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a current price of 17.10 RMB and a fair value of 19.07 RMB [8]. Core Insights - The company's performance in the oil tanker sector has reached a historical high, with net profit from the oil tanker fleet increasing by 59.06% year-on-year to 4.191 billion RMB in 2025. The company has effectively leveraged its large fleet size and maintained a low charter rate ratio to maximize profits during a high market period [8]. - The dry bulk shipping segment has faced challenges, with net profit declining by 26.69% year-on-year to 1.135 billion RMB in 2025, primarily due to a 4% drop in the average BDI index. However, the company has managed to outperform market indices through strategic fleet optimization [8]. - The outlook for both oil and dry bulk markets is positive, with limited new ship deliveries and increasing demand from Asia and non-OPEC countries expected to support freight rates. The dry bulk market is anticipated to recover, driven by new mining projects and demand from emerging industries [8]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024: 25.799 billion RMB - 2025: 28.177 billion RMB (growth of 9.22%) - 2026: 40.941 billion RMB (growth of 45.3%) - 2027: 34.290 billion RMB (decline of 16.2%) - 2028: 32.369 billion RMB (decline of 5.6%) [3][19] - Net profit forecasts are: - 2024: 5.107 billion RMB - 2025: 6.012 billion RMB (growth of 17.7%) - 2026: 14.182 billion RMB (growth of 135.9%) - 2027: 9.985 billion RMB (decline of 29.6%) - 2028: 8.708 billion RMB (decline of 12.8%) [3][19] Business Segment Analysis - Oil Transportation: - Revenue is expected to grow significantly, with projections of 92.06 billion RMB in 2024 and reaching 228.21 billion RMB in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 121.80% [19]. - Dry Bulk Transportation: - Revenue is projected to be 79.4 billion RMB in 2024, with a slight recovery expected in subsequent years [19]. - Container Transportation: - Revenue is expected to stabilize around 54.34 billion RMB in 2024, with a projected decline of 6% in 2026 [19]. Valuation Metrics - The company is expected to have a P/E ratio of 11 for 2026, with a fair value estimate of 19.07 RMB per share [8]. - The report highlights that the company's valuation is influenced by the overall market conditions and the performance of comparable companies in the industry [21].