Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Guming Holdings [2][7] Core Insights - Guming achieved steady growth in overall revenue and profit in 2025, exceeding previous expectations, with a revenue of RMB 7.25 billion in 2H25, up 52.0% year-on-year, and an operating profit of RMB 1.86 billion, up 38.7% year-on-year [4][12] - The company opened 2,375 new stores in 2H25, with a slight increase in the proportion of stores in lower-tier cities [4][12] - Guming's coffee business is a core driver for expanding from the milk tea segment to the full beverage segment, with sales volume exceeding 800,000 cups in 2025 and a target of over 1.2 million cups in 2026 [6][14] - The company plans to launch a new store image in the second half of 2026, with comprehensive upgrades to packaging and decoration to enhance user experience [7][14] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2026-2028 are RMB 16.57 billion, RMB 20.10 billion, and RMB 23.75 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 28.3%, 21.3%, and 18.2% respectively [7][15] - Net profit attributable to owners of the parent for 2026-2028 is projected at RMB 3.24 billion, RMB 4.04 billion, and RMB 5.12 billion, with growth rates of 19.5%, 20.1%, and 21.5% year-on-year [7][15] - The company proposes a dividend of HK$0.5 per share, with a cash payout ratio of approximately 40% after tax [4][12] Market Position and Strategy - Guming effectively safeguarded store profits during the 2025 food delivery subsidy war through precise regulation strategies, raising its actual food delivery realization rate by nearly 10 percentage points [5][13] - The company focuses on converting new customers into long-term users and aims to enhance market share through a healthy store model [5][13] - Guming's franchisee profitability reached a record high in 2025, with expectations for a slight rise in gross margin in 2026 [6][14]
古茗（01364）：交接覆盖：平稳消化2025年平台补贴带来的业务波动，盈利能力显著提升