海底捞（06862）：主品牌2H25企稳回升，红石榴计划开启第二增长曲线验证

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Haidilao International Holding [2][3]. Core Insights - Haidilao's revenue is projected to reach RMB 45.06 billion in 2026, with a year-on-year growth of 4.2%. Net profit is expected to be RMB 4.36 billion, reflecting a growth of 7.7% [3][13]. - The flagship brand's operational performance stabilized in the second half of 2025, with a slight increase in average spend per guest, while the table turnover rate showed a modest recovery [4][14]. - The "Pomegranate Plan" has successfully transitioned from internal incubation to market validation, with significant revenue contributions from new sub-brands [5][15]. - The delivery business has shown strong growth, becoming a key revenue pillar, with a full-year revenue of RMB 2.66 billion, up 111.9% year-on-year [6][16]. Financial Projections - Revenue and net profit forecasts for Haidilao from 2026 to 2028 are as follows: - 2026: Revenue of RMB 45.06 billion, net profit of RMB 4.36 billion - 2027: Revenue of RMB 47.41 billion, net profit of RMB 4.90 billion - 2028: Revenue of RMB 50.47 billion, net profit of RMB 5.44 billion [3][10][13]. - The gross profit margin is expected to remain stable around 59% for the forecast period [10][12]. Operational Performance - The main brand's revenue for 2025 was RMB 37.54 billion, a decrease of 7.1% year-on-year, with a table turnover rate of 3.9 times per day [4][14]. - The company operated 1,383 restaurants by the end of 2025, with a net addition of 15 locations during the year [4][14]. Strategic Developments - Zhang Yong's return as CEO aims to enhance strategic execution and organizational efficiency, particularly in expanding the multi-brand strategy under the Pomegranate Plan [8][17]. - The company plans to increase capital expenditure on new business initiatives in 2026, which may impact short-term profitability but is expected to drive long-term growth [5][19].