NBOND(SH:603238) Changjiang Securities·2026-03-30 00:35Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Nobon Co., Ltd. (603238.SH) with a first-time coverage [13]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the non-woven fabric industry in China is experiencing a significant recovery, with a projected production increase of 5.1% in 2024, marking the highest growth since 2020. The demand for high-end materials and products is expected to drive both domestic and export markets [5][9]. - Nobon Co., Ltd. specializes in differentiated and personalized water-jet non-woven fabric rolls and products, with a strong focus on high-end markets. The company's core product, "Sanlyzox," is recognized for its global leading performance and is expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth [8][11]. Industry Overview - The non-woven fabric industry is projected to see a production increase of 5.1% in 2024, with water-jet non-woven fabric production expected to grow by 8.1%. This growth is driven by rising demand for disposable cleaning products and an increase in export share [9][25]. - The industry is characterized by a low concentration of players, with over 85% being small to medium-sized enterprises. However, the market is gradually shifting towards higher-end products, which may lead to increased concentration among leading players [53][54]. Company Overview - Nobon Co., Ltd. has a clear shareholding structure, with the chairman holding 46.4% of the shares as of Q3 2025. The management team is described as professional and stable, contributing to the company's strategic execution [8][45]. - The company's revenue is expected to reach 2.24 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 95 million yuan. The revenue contribution from rolls and products is projected to be 31.7% and 67.5%, respectively [8][11]. Product Segmentation - The company's product segments include high-end rolls and various personal care products. The roll segment is expected to generate a gross profit margin of 21.8%, significantly higher than the 11.3% margin for products [35][37]. - Nobon's products are widely used in personal care, industrial materials, and medical applications, with a strong emphasis on OEM and direct sales channels [35][37]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts that Nobon Co., Ltd. will achieve a net profit of 124 million yuan in 2025 and 152 million yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 31% and 22%, respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 22.6 and 18.5 times [11].