东方电缆：存货、合同负债创新高，海缆确收有望加速-20260330

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 10.84 billion yuan for the year, a year-on-year increase of 19.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.27 billion yuan, up 26.1% year-on-year. In Q4 alone, revenue reached 3.35 billion yuan, reflecting a significant growth of 39.7%, while net profit surged by 370.1% to 360 million yuan [2]. - The revenue from submarine cables and high-voltage cables reached 5.36 billion yuan, a 65.6% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 33.4%, up 5.6 percentage points. This growth is attributed to a higher proportion of high-value orders being fulfilled. The company also achieved overseas revenue of 1.25 billion yuan, a 70.8% increase, with a gross margin of 38.5%, up 22.9 percentage points [3]. - As of March 25, 2026, the company had a backlog of orders amounting to approximately 19.3 billion yuan, with a stable outlook for continued growth in 2026, driven by upcoming tenders in provinces like Jiangsu and Fujian [3]. - The company’s inventory and contract liabilities reached historical highs of 3.95 billion yuan and 2.37 billion yuan, respectively, indicating potential for accelerated project revenue recognition as downstream projects progress [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2026-2028, the forecasted net profits are 1.82 billion yuan, 2.27 billion yuan, and 2.62 billion yuan, corresponding to P/E ratios of 22, 18, and 15 times, respectively [5]. - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 10.84 billion yuan in 2025 to 12.09 billion yuan in 2026, with a growth rate of 11.46% [10]. Operational Analysis - The company’s operational performance is bolstered by high-value orders in submarine and high-voltage cables, which are expected to continue driving profitability [3]. - The inventory levels, particularly in submarine cables, are nearing the total sales volume for the year, suggesting efficient inventory management and readiness for project execution [4].