珍酒李渡（06979）：2025年业绩公告点评：业绩承压，营销创新破局

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the company [1]. Core Insights - The company experienced a significant decline in performance in 2025, with a double-digit drop in revenue, particularly in the second half of the year, attributed to channel destocking. The introduction of an alliance merchant model aims to strengthen channel binding and achieve marketing breakthroughs [2]. - The company reported a revenue of 3.65 billion RMB in 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 48%, with adjusted net profit falling to 523 million RMB, down 69% year-on-year. The performance aligns with previous forecasts [8]. - The company is facing challenges in the mid-range liquor market, with a notable decline in sales across various price segments. However, the brand "Li Du" performed relatively better, with a revenue of 1.09 billion RMB, a decrease of 17%, which is better than the overall company performance [8]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to decline from 7.067 billion RMB in 2024 to 3.65 billion RMB in 2025, with a subsequent recovery expected in the following years [4]. - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to decrease from 1.676 billion RMB in 2024 to 523 million RMB in 2025, with a gradual increase anticipated thereafter [4]. - The company’s gross margin for 2025 is expected to be 58.5%, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the sales expense ratio is projected to rise to 30.6%, an increase of 7.8 percentage points year-on-year [8]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has launched an innovative business model with the introduction of new products like "Da Zhen" and the "Wan Shang Alliance" model, which aims to attract customers through profit-sharing incentives. By the end of 2025, the number of retailers increased to 4,264, a net addition of 1,429 retailers since June [8]. - The company plans to expand the alliance merchant rights payment plan to other product series, which is expected to enhance customer loyalty and achieve channel win-win situations [8].