牧原股份（002714）：成本与一体化优势扩大

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 54.90 [1][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 144.145 billion for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.49%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 15.487 billion, a decrease of 13.39% compared to the previous year [1]. - The decline in profits from pig farming was primarily due to falling pig prices, but the slaughtering and meat business saw significant growth, with revenues reaching RMB 45.228 billion, an increase of 86.32% year-on-year, marking its first annual profit in 2025 [1]. - The company has achieved a significant reduction in costs, with the total cost of pig farming at approximately RMB 12 per kg, which is about RMB 1.7 lower than the industry average [2]. Financial Performance - The company improved its financial structure, reducing total liabilities by RMB 17.1 billion, resulting in a debt-to-asset ratio of 54.15%, down 4.53 percentage points from the beginning of the year [3]. - The dividend payout ratio has been consistently increasing, with a total cash dividend of RMB 74.38 billion in 2025, representing 48.03% of the annual net profit attributable to shareholders, an increase of 5.59 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Business Expansion - The company significantly increased its slaughtering volume to 28.66 million heads in 2025, a year-on-year growth of 129%, and established over 70 sales branches across 20 provincial-level regions [4]. - The company is actively expanding its sales channels for slaughtering and meat products, enhancing its national pork sales network, and optimizing customer and product structures through increased investment in digitalization and intelligence [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecast for 2026 and 2027 has been adjusted to RMB 6.656 billion and RMB 35.442 billion, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 57.50% for 2026 due to unexpected declines in pig prices [5]. - The target price remains at RMB 54.90, based on a price-to-book ratio of 3.8x for 2026, considering the company's strong cost advantages and improving financial structure [5].