南华期货2026年宏观及大类资产配置二季度展望：战略主线锚定下的防守反攻

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since the beginning of 2026, the market has shown an overall recovery in risk appetite. However, the sudden escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict at the end of February has changed the market narrative, leading to a shift from betting on economic expansion to trading stagflation expectations [1]. - In the second quarter, the continuous fermentation of the US - Israel - Iran conflict will be the core contradiction in global macro - pricing, reversing three major consensuses formed in the market from late 2025 to early 2026. The market may evolve along the main line of "first trading stagflation, then pricing recession" [2]. - Against the backdrop of rising global stagflation risks, China's economic cycle is undergoing a structural reshaping. The second - quarter asset allocation should follow the core principle of "defensive counter - attack" [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Chapter 2: Global Macro - environment Analysis - Core Contradiction: The US - Israel - Iran conflict in the Middle - East in the second quarter of 2026 is the most core variable in the global market, reversing three major core expectations at the global macro - level [5][6]. - Reversal of Three Core Expectations: - Fed's interest - rate cut expectation: It will enter a cooling and observation period in the second quarter due to factors such as the inflation push from the Middle - East conflict, the uncertainty of the Wash hearing, the unmet conditions for rate cuts, and the conflict's underlying logic conflicting with rate - cut demands [7]. - Global economic growth expectation: The expectation of smooth global economic growth has been broken. The risk of recession has been fully priced into risk - asset prices and volatility structures [11]. - US dollar depreciation expectation: The expectation of a significant and trend - based decline in the US dollar index has failed. The US dollar will enter an oscillatory observation period in the second quarter of 2026 [17]. - Underlying Logic of the US Initiating the Conflict: - Core political goal: Use a controlled increase in energy prices to replace rate cuts, achieving the core political goals of capital repatriation to the US and propping up the US stock market [21]. - Geopolitical strategy: Strengthen energy hegemony, restructure the global supply chain, and lock in key resources [22]. - Political appeal: Transfer domestic contradictions and consolidate the political base [24]. - Global power - politics layout: Force European allies to take sides, strengthen NATO's control, and complete the global power - politics layout [25]. - Analysis of the Conflict's Evolution Rhythm: - Expected rhythm: The US may expect the conflict to intensify in March, leading to a rise in oil prices and a general adjustment of risk assets. In April - May, after achieving phased results, it will withdraw strategically, guiding oil prices to decline moderately [36]. - Adjustment of judgment: The time window for the end of the war is adjusted to "May - June" or "before summer", with corresponding probability weights of 30% for ending before the end of April, 40% for ending in May - June, and 30% for continuing after summer [39]. - Analysis of Supply - shock Reversibility under Different War Durations: - Short - term war scenario: If the war ends before the end of April, the energy supply shock can be mostly repaired through post - war production capacity catch - up, with the annual net loss of crude - oil supply controlled within 300 - 500 million barrels, accounting for 0.8% - 1.2% of global annual consumption [39]. - Long - term war scenario: If the war lasts for more than 3 months, the annual crude - oil supply loss will be in the "irreparable" range, and a significant demand destruction may occur, leading to a global economic recession [40]. - Analysis of Asset Performance under Different War Scenarios: - Scenario 1: If the war ends before the end of April, the supply shock is "pulse - type". Asset prices will quickly return to the pre - conflict logic. Crude - oil prices will decline, gold will face a short - term correction, the US Treasury yield curve will steepen, the US stock market will rebound, the US dollar index will fall, and emerging markets and the Chinese market will experience a valuation repair [54]. - Scenario 2: If the war lasts for more than 2 months, the supply shock will become "persistent". The market will enter stagflation trading and then switch to recession pricing. Crude - oil prices will rise, gold will enter a bull market, the US Treasury yield curve will flatten or deepen the inversion, the US stock market will face a "double - kill" of earnings and valuation, the US dollar will first rise and then fall, and emerging markets will be severely differentiated [56]. Chapter 3: Inflection - point Signals of the Global Asset - pricing Anchor - Core Driver of the Abnormal Movement of the 2 - year US Treasury Yield: It is driven by the "war - energy - inflation - policy expectation" vicious transmission chain triggered by the US - Israel - Iran war since February 2026, showing a typical "spontaneous interest - rate hike" [66]. - Second - quarter Trend Judgment: The 2 - year US Treasury yield is likely to show a trend of "inertial upward rush - high - level topping - inflection - point confirmation", with the main fluctuation range between 3.50% - 4.20%, and may challenge the previous high of 5.0% in an extreme stagflation scenario [69]. - Core Observation Nodes and Defensive Position - layout Strategies: - Three key verification nodes: April 6th is the core geopolitical window; mid - to late April is the data - verification period; May - June is the top - confirmation period [75]. - Defensive position - layout strategies: In the first half of April, hedge against risks by underweighting or shorting high - valuation growth stocks, optional consumer stocks, and cyclical varieties, shorting industrial metals and black - series varieties, and going long on the US dollar index. After late April, go long on 2 - year/5 - year US Treasury futures, gold, and short commodity - linked currencies, and gradually take profits on the US dollar long position. Also, configure long positions in crude oil and inflation - protected bonds to hedge against extreme scenarios [79]. Chapter 4: Domestic Macro - environment Analysis - Three Fundamental Reshaping Trends of the Domestic Economic Cycle: - Economic growth smoothing: The dominance of aggregate demand has shifted from the private sector to the government sector, and fiscal policy has become the dominant force in economic fluctuations [82]. - Structural supply surplus: The traditional price - transmission logic has failed, and it is difficult to start an inflation cycle due to the low utilization rate of industrial production capacity [83]. - Coordination of monetary and fiscal policies: Fiscal policy has become the core variable in money supply and credit expansion, suppressing the cyclical fluctuations of the economy [83]. - Impact of the US - Israel - Iran Conflict on the Domestic Economy: - Analysis of two mainstream narratives: The view that the energy - supply shock will bring substantial benefits to the Chinese economy and that PPI turning positive will reverse the deflation pattern is inaccurate. Cost - push inflation cannot reverse deflation but may intensify stagflation risks [88][93]. - Analysis of corporate profit and inflation: Only demand - driven inflation can improve corporate profits and break the deflation cycle, while cost - push inflation will squeeze corporate profits and strengthen the deflationary negative cycle [95][101]. - The 15th Five - Year Plan Outline: - Core strategic anchor: It is the core strategic anchor for the long - term pricing of the Chinese capital market, with a clear causal - transmission chain from policy text to industrial supply - demand to asset pricing [107]. - Investment guidance effectiveness: There is a clear ranking of sector heterogeneity in the guidance effectiveness of the plan. The full - cycle core investment main lines of the 15th Five - Year Plan are highly focused, and the annual core strategy is "defensive counter - attack" [108]. Chapter 5: Asset - allocation Strategy for the Second Quarter of 2026 - Core strategy: The market's core main line in the second quarter of 2026 is "first trading stagflation, then turning to recession pricing". The overall strategy is based on "defensive counter - attack". In the first half of April, focus on risk hedging and defensive layout. After late April, if the signal of demand contraction is confirmed, carry out a counter - attack layout around the recession - trading main line and the industrial main lines of the 15th Five - Year Plan [111].