COL(SZ:300364) China Post Securities·2026-03-30 07:09Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within six months [8]. Core Insights - The company is currently facing pressure on performance due to high promotional expenditures associated with its overseas business expansion, which is expected to impact short-term profitability [5][6]. - Despite the current losses, the company is positioned in high-value segments of the overseas short drama market, which is experiencing rapid growth. This strategic positioning is anticipated to enhance its long-term profitability [7]. - The company’s revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 1.4 billion, 1.5 billion, and 1.6 billion yuan respectively, with a downward adjustment in net profit estimates due to ongoing high promotional costs [8]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 25.94 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 18.9 billion yuan [4]. - The company has a total share capital of 729 million shares, with 660 million shares in circulation [4]. - The company reported a significant increase in expected net losses for 2025, projecting a loss of 5.8 to 7.0 billion yuan, which is an increase of 208.51% to 272.34% year-on-year [5]. Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from 1.159 billion yuan in 2024 to 1.640 billion yuan in 2027, with a notable increase in net profit projected for 2026 and 2027 [10][13]. - The company’s net profit margin is expected to improve significantly by 2027, with a projected net profit of 108 million yuan [10]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be -0.79 yuan in 2025, improving to 0.15 yuan by 2027 [10].