Zhongtai Securities(SH:600918) ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2026-03-30 07:24Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - There is an "expected difference" between the current crude oil price and fundamentals. When inventory oil is insufficient, crude oil futures prices may rise, and there is pressure for the price center to shift upward and volatility to increase [6]. - The "peace - talk expectation" of Trump is difficult to materialize. The demands of the US and Iran differ greatly, and the cost of Trump's "TACO" is higher than usual [6][9]. - For A - shares, in the short - term, sectors directly benefiting from the war may have a second - round market; small - and medium - cap and overseas - mapped technology segments need to be cautious; in the medium - term, high - weight value sectors can be deployed at low prices; in the long - term, focus on the "security - export demand" main line of the pan - growth sector [9]. Summary by Directory Market Review - Market Performance: Last week, major market indices generally declined. The ChiNext 50 had the largest decline with a weekly change of - 2.09%. The Small and Medium - cap Composite Index and the CSI 500 slightly declined. Among major industries, the Materials Index and the Utilities Index performed relatively well with weekly changes of 2.54% and 2.50% respectively, while the Financial Index and the Information Technology Index performed weakly with weekly changes of - 2.31% and - 2.26% respectively. Among 30 Shenwan primary industries, 9 industries rose. The industries with larger increases were Non - Ferrous Metals, Utilities, and Basic Chemicals, rising 2.78%, 2.50%, and 2.31% respectively. The industries with larger declines were Non - Banking Finance, Computer, and Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery, falling 3.98%, 3.44%, and 2.94% respectively [13][15][18] - Trading Heat: Last week, the average daily trading volume of the Wind All - A Index was 21115.58 billion yuan (the previous value was 22111.17 billion yuan), at a relatively high historical level (84.30% quantile in three - year history) [11] - Valuation Tracking: As of March 27, 2026, the valuation (PE_TTM) of the Wind All - A Index was 22.48, a decrease of - 0.12 from the previous week, at the 95.40% quantile in the past 5 years. Among 30 Shenwan primary industries, 10 industries' valuations (PE_TTM) were repaired [14][26] Market Observation - Reasons for the "Expected Difference" between Crude Oil Futures and Fundamentals: Despite the ongoing US - Iran conflict for four weeks and the non - navigation of the Strait of Hormuz, international crude oil prices remain around $100 per barrel. The Trump administration's continuous release of peace - talk expectations suppresses the market's pricing of geopolitical risks. However, when inventory oil is insufficient, crude oil futures prices may rise [6] - Reasons for the Difficulty of Trump's "Peace - Talk Expectation" to Materialize: The duration of the US - Iran conflict may exceed market expectations. The US put forward a 15 - item conflict - ending plan, but Iran gave a "negative response". Iran's core demand has shifted from "temporary cease - fire" to "post - war security guarantee", which means the US needs to make a substantial strategic contraction in the Middle East. The demands of both sides differ greatly, and the "peace - talk expectation" is difficult to materialize [6][9] - Impact on A - shares: In the short - term, as the peace - talk expectation is gradually dispelled, sectors directly benefiting from the war may have a second - round market. Small - and medium - cap and overseas - mapped technology segments need to be cautious after a short - term rebound. In the medium - term, focus on high - weight value sectors such as energy, chemicals, utilities, insurance, and banks. In the long - term, focus on the "security - export demand" main line of the pan - growth sector, such as new energy, small metals, optical fibers, machinery, and power equipment [9]