Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2026-03-30 11:12Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026 Q1, the domestic live pig market showed a trend of "rising first and then falling, and continuously hitting bottom". The futures price rebounded before the Spring Festival due to the boost of curing and holiday demand, but fell after the Spring Festival due to weak consumption demand and weakened secondary fattening sentiment [1][2] - Looking forward to Q2 2026, the oversupply pressure in the live pig market is still being released. The pig price is likely to continue to bottom out in the low - level range in the short term, and there may be a phased trend market in the second half of the year. Attention should be paid to the breeding strategies of farmers in the off - season [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 2: Market Review - In 2026 Q1, the domestic live pig futures and spot markets showed a trend of "rising first and then falling, and continuously hitting bottom", and the industry fell into deep losses [2] - From the beginning of the year to before the Spring Festival: The peak season was not prosperous, and the destocking of breeding sows was less than expected. The spot price briefly soared to about 13.18 yuan/kg in January, but the futures market declined due to the less - than - expected destocking of breeding sows [2] - After the Spring Festival: The demand was dismal, and the industry fell into deep losses. The supply was abundant, and the demand entered the traditional off - season. The narrowing of the white - hair price difference and the slow sales of white - striped pork further suppressed the pig price [3] Chapter 3: Key Points of Concern 3.1 Supply - side Concerns - Breeding sows: The current live pig slaughter is mainly determined by the breeding sow inventory in April - May 2025, which was still at a high level. The destocking of breeding sows has been slow, but may accelerate due to serious losses in pig breeding. The proportion of binary and ternary breeding sows has remained relatively stable, and the overall breeding capacity has been increasing [6] - Production efficiency: The current PSY and MSY of live pig production are at historical highs, which has significantly enhanced the actual supply capacity of commercial pigs. The release of "invisible production capacity" has led to continuous pressure on pig prices and deepened industry losses [8] - Live pig slaughter volume: From the beginning of the year to around the Spring Festival, the domestic live pig slaughter showed the characteristics of "high - level operation of total volume, slow - then - fast slaughter rhythm, and high proportion of large pigs". The slaughter pressure increased rapidly after the Spring Festival. In March, the planned slaughter volume of group pig enterprises increased significantly compared with that in February [10] - Average slaughter weight of live pigs: The average slaughter weight of live pigs in early January was relatively low, and did not decrease significantly before the Spring Festival as in previous years. After the Spring Festival, the problem of large pigs was prominent, and the average slaughter weight continued to rise, reaching a high level in the same period in the past five years [12] 3.2 Demand - side Concerns - Slaughter enterprises: The overall slaughter volume of live pigs in 2026 was relatively high. In January, the slaughter volume increased by 15.4% compared with the same period last year, but the data of sample enterprises showed different trends [17] - Terminal fresh sales situation: The fresh sales rate in the terminal live pig market has dropped significantly due to increased slaughter volume and slow sales of white - striped pork. The demand is in the traditional off - season, and the fresh sales market will continue to fluctuate at a low level under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand [19] Chapter 4: Cost Valuation and Supply - Demand Outlook 4.1 Breeding Profit - The live pig breeding industry is in a state of deep losses, with self - breeding and self - raising suffering more severe losses. The loss per pig in self - breeding and self - raising has expanded to - 344.24 yuan, and the loss in purchasing piglets for fattening is in the range of - 141.48 yuan to - 199.25 yuan [21] - The secondary fattening behavior in the live pig market has shown a "rational slowdown" feature, with low utilization rate of fattening pens and narrowing or inverted spread between standard and fat pigs [23][24] 4.2 Feed Cost - The feed cost of live pig breeding is rising due to the increasing prices of corn and soybean meal, which has further exacerbated the industry's losses [26] 4.3 Summary and Supply - Demand Outlook - In Q1, the pig price showed a unilateral accelerating downward trend, and the industry has fallen into deep cash - flow losses. Although the destocking of breeding sows is currently less than expected, it may accelerate in the future [28] - In the short term, the oversupply pressure in the live pig market will still be released, and the pig price is likely to continue to bottom out at a low level. In the supply side, as the industry enters a deep - loss stage, the sow production capacity will shrink, and the marginal supply pressure may decrease [29]