华兰生物（002007）：生物药新增长曲线逐渐清晰

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience steady growth in blood products, a gradual recovery in vaccine sales, and rapid growth in biopharmaceuticals, driven by the launch of new products and clinical advancements [1][5]. - The forecast for 2025 includes revenues of 4.6 billion RMB, net profit of 940 million RMB, and a decrease in net profit by 14% year-on-year due to competitive pricing pressures in the blood products sector [1][5]. Summary by Relevant Sections Blood Products - Blood products revenue for 2025 is projected at 3.39 billion RMB, reflecting a 4% year-on-year increase, with a gross margin of 50.2%, down 4.2 percentage points year-on-year. The decline in gross margin and net profit is attributed to price reductions amid industry competition [2]. - The company’s plasma collection volume is expected to grow by 5% year-on-year to approximately 1,670 tons, with future growth projected at around 10% due to new plasma stations and regional planning initiatives [2]. Vaccine Sales - Vaccine revenue for 2025 is estimated at 1.2 billion RMB, a 7% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 180 million RMB, down 11% year-on-year. The flu vaccine revenue is expected to be 1.12 billion RMB, benefiting from a flu outbreak at the end of 2025 [3]. - Long-term growth in vaccine sales is anticipated due to government support and increased public awareness of vaccination [3]. Biopharmaceuticals - The company’s subsidiary, Hualan Ankang, is projected to generate revenue of 240 million RMB in 2025, with a net loss of 16 million RMB. The sales of Bevacizumab are expected to contribute approximately 200 million RMB [3]. - The company is advancing its pipeline in biopharmaceuticals, with several products in various stages of clinical trials, including long-acting GLP-1 for diabetes and other innovative therapies [4]. Financial Projections - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are 1.02 billion RMB, 1.14 billion RMB, and 1.27 billion RMB, respectively, reflecting a significant downward adjustment of 40% and 44% for 2026 and 2027 compared to previous estimates [5][12]. - The target price is set at 17.28 RMB, based on a 31x PE ratio for 2026, which is a premium compared to the average PE of comparable companies [5][12].