钢材周报20260330：成本支撑，钢价震荡运行-20260330

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The steel price is supported by costs and will fluctuate in the short - term. The steel mill profitability rate has increased but remains at a low level. The start - up rates of blast furnaces and electric furnaces have risen, and hot metal production has increased. The production of rebar has decreased, while the production of hot - rolled coils has increased. The demand for steel continues to recover, but the recovery is slow. The inventory of steel products has continued to decline, and the pressure has been relieved, but it is still at a high level. The ongoing geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has led to an increase in raw material prices, which supports the steel price, while high inventory and slow demand recovery suppress price increases [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel Product Situation - Supply: The steel production is at a low level year - on - year. The weekly production of rebar from major steel mills nationwide is 197.87 million tons (-5.46), and the weekly production of hot - rolled coils is 305.61 million tons (+5.4) [4]. - Demand: The demand for steel continues to recover. The apparent demand for rebar last week was 225.37 million tons (+17.28), and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils was 313.63 million tons (+3.12) [4]. - Inventory: The de - stocking amplitude of rebar has increased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils has decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year. The total inventory of rebar is 861.91 million tons (-27.5), the social inventory is 642.75 million tons (-10.46), and the steel mill inventory is 219.16 million tons (-17.04). The total inventory of hot - rolled coils is 453.27 million tons (-8.02), the social inventory is 369.42 million tons (-6.91), and the steel mill inventory is 83.85 million tons (-1.11) [4]. - Basis: As of March 27, the basis of the rebar main contract is 96 yuan/ton (0), and the basis of the hot - rolled coil main contract is - 9 yuan/ton (+8) [4]. - Summary: The steel mill profitability rate is 43.29%, a 0.87% increase from the previous period. The hot metal production is 231.09 million tons, a 2.94 - million - ton increase from the previous period. The blast furnace start - up rate is 81.03%, a 1.44% increase from the previous period, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 86.63%, a 2.61% increase from the previous period. The electric furnace start - up rate is 68.82%, a 9.55% increase from the previous period, and the electric furnace capacity utilization rate is 58.87%, a 6.13% increase from the previous period [4]. 3.2 Spot Prices As of March 27, the average price of rebar HRB400E 20MM in major cities nationwide is 3324 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period; the average price of hot - rolled coils 4.75MM nationwide is 3322 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan/ton increase from the previous period [8]. 3.3 Raw Materials The cost side still has support. The price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke is 1500 yuan/ton (+30), the price of main coking coal in Lvliang is 1530 yuan/ton (+62), and the price of 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port is 786 yuan/ton (-12) [15]. 3.4 Other Market Indicators - Blast Furnace and Electric Furnace Start - up Rates: The start - up rates of blast furnaces and electric furnaces continue to rise, and hot metal production increases [18]. - Steel Mill Profitability Rate: The steel mill profitability rate has increased [25]. - Tangshan Blast Furnace Start - up Rate: As of March 27, the Tangshan blast furnace start - up rate is 95.15%, a 1.71% increase from the previous period [31]. - Production Volume: The rebar production has decreased, with a 5.46 - million - ton decrease in the weekly production. The long - process production has decreased by 4.01 million tons, and the short - process production has decreased by 1.45 million tons. The hot - rolled coil production has increased by 5.4 million tons [33][36][37]. - Apparent Demand: The apparent demand has increased but is still at a low level year - on - year [40]. - Trading Volume: The weekly average trading volume of rebar is 9.4 million tons, running at a low level. The weekly average trading volume of hot - rolled coils is 4.717 million tons, and the downstream cold - rolled production is 89.2 million tons, a 0.35 - million - ton increase from the previous period, at a high level year - on - year [45][49]. - Inventory: As of March 27, the Tangshan billet inventory is 72.75 million tons, a 2.25 - million - ton decrease from the previous period, at a high level. The inventory of major steel products is 1387.29 million tons, a 23.33 - million - ton decrease from the previous period [52]. - Exports: From January to February, steel exports were 15.59 billion tons, an 8% year - on - year decrease; hot - rolled coil exports were 2.2488 billion tons, a 35% year - on - year decrease [63]. - Automobile Production and Sales: In February, automobile production was 1.672 million vehicles, a 777,900 - vehicle decrease from the previous period; automobile sales were 1.805 million tons, a 541,500 - ton decrease from the previous period. New - energy vehicle production was 694,000 vehicles, a 347,000 - vehicle decrease from the previous period; new - energy vehicle sales were 765,000 tons, an 180,000 - ton decrease from the previous period [67]. - Real Estate Data: From January to February, real estate investment decreased by 11.1% year - on - year, the cumulative year - on - year decrease in the newly started housing area was 23.1%, the cumulative year - on - year decrease in the completed housing area was 27.9%, the year - on - year decrease in the commercial housing sales area was 13.5%, the year - on - year decrease in the commercial housing sales volume was 20.2%, and the year - on - year decrease in the available funds was 16.5% [70].