双焦周报20260330：刚需采购增加，盘面小幅上移-20260330

Group 1: Market Views 1. Coking Coal Fundamentals - Supply: The operating rate of 523 sample mines was 89.16% (+0.57%), and the daily average output of clean coal was 78.6 tons (-1.21). The capacity utilization rate of 314 coal washing plants was 34.78% (+1.77%), and the daily average output of clean coal was 25.89 tons (+1.58). The Mongolian coal customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port remained high, and the overall supply increased [3]. - Demand: The daily output of molten iron from 247 steel mills was 231.09 tons (+2.94), and the blast furnace operating rate was 81.03% (+1.25%). The available days of coking coal for 247 steel mills were 12.44 days (+0.14), and those for 230 independent coking plants were 12.95 days (+0.4). The procurement sentiment of downstream coking and steel plants improved [3]. - Inventory: The clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 222.83 tons (-31.26), the inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 1047.54 tons (+42.51), the steel mill inventory was 782.41 tons (+8.48), the clean coal inventory of 314 sample coal washing plants was 349.18 tons (+16.67), and the inventory at major ports was 269.44 tons (+4.49). The inventory structure was being transferred to the middle and downstream [3]. - Summary: Last week, the coking coal market supply remained high. Demand from downstream coking and steel plants increased. The inventory structure improved. In the short term, it will maintain a slightly stronger oscillation [3]. 2. Coke Fundamentals - Supply: The average profit per ton of coke in coking plants was 21 yuan/ton (-17). The capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking plants was 74.86% (+0.55%), and the daily average output was 64.76 tons (+0.52). The daily output of coke from 247 steel mills was 47.28 tons (-0.03). The overall supply was relatively stable [4]. - Demand: The daily output of molten iron from 247 steel mills was 231.09 tons (+2.94), and the blast furnace operating rate was 81.03% (+1.25). The available days of coke for 247 steel mills were 12.75 days (+0.01). The rigid demand support was strong [4]. - Inventory: The inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 90.05 tons (-4.18), the inventory at major ports was 216.11 tons (+16.98), and the inventory of 247 steel mills was 691.67 tons (+3.49). The overall social inventory of coke increased slightly [4]. - Summary: The supply and demand of coke both increased, and the market sentiment was positive. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate slightly stronger [4]. Group 2: Macro - real Estate Tracking - The report includes data on the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of national fixed asset investment, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of new construction, construction, completion, and sales area of national real estate, the weekly commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities, the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of the steel industry, and the manufacturing PMI [6][10][14][18] Group 3: Coking Coal Supply and Demand Tracking - It includes data on the purchase price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jiexiu, Jinzhong, Shanxi, the comparison of mainstream coking coal spot prices nationwide, the basis tracking of coking coal contracts, the daily average output and operating rate of 523 sample coal mines, the daily average output and capacity utilization rate of 314 sample coal washing plants, the daily output of molten iron and blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills, the inventory of 314 sample coal washing plants and 523 sample mines, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills and all - sample independent coking plants, the inventory of imported coking coal at ports, the available days of coking coal inventory for 247 steel mills and 230 independent coking plants, and the customs clearance vehicles of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port [21][26][33][38][40][42][45][48][54][57] Group 4: Coke Supply and Demand Tracking - It includes data on the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang, the spot price adjustment schedule of coke, the comparison of coke spot prices, the basis of coke contracts, the profit per ton of coke in independent coking enterprises, the daily output and capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises and 247 steel mills, the inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises and 247 steel mills, the inventory of coke at ports, and the available days of coke inventory for 247 steel mills [61][63][65][69][76][79][82][87][91]