Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a current price of HKD 6.96 and a fair value of HKD 10.58 [6]. Core Insights - The company is actively expanding its store network, aiming for a long-term growth strategy [3]. - The revenue forecast for the company shows a steady increase, with projected revenues of RMB 5,210 million in 2024, growing to RMB 7,873 million by 2028, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 14.5% [5]. - The adjusted net profit is expected to fluctuate, with a peak of RMB 833 million in 2028 after a dip in 2026 [5]. Financial Summary - Revenue Growth: The company anticipates a revenue growth rate of 14.5% in 2024, followed by 2.6% in 2025, and a significant increase of 20.1% in 2027 [5][13]. - EBITDA and Net Profit: Projected EBITDA is expected to rise from RMB 1,244 million in 2024 to RMB 1,597 million in 2028. The net profit is forecasted to be RMB 581 million in 2024, increasing to RMB 833 million by 2028 [5][13]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): EPS is projected to grow from RMB 0.49 in 2024 to RMB 0.71 in 2028, indicating a positive trend in profitability [5][13]. - Valuation Metrics: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 16.3 in 2024 to 8.7 in 2028, suggesting an attractive valuation as earnings grow [5][13]. - Return on Equity (ROE): The ROE is projected to remain strong, starting at 24.5% in 2024 and reaching 25.1% by 2028 [5][13]. Operational Highlights - The company has maintained a positive store expansion strategy, with a net increase of 140 stores in 2025, aiming for a total of 1,000 stores by the end of 2026 [9]. - The gross margin improved to 70.4% in 2025, driven by procurement efficiencies and cost management [9]. - The company has increased its dividend payout ratio to 69.8% in 2025, reflecting a commitment to returning value to shareholders [9].
小菜园（00999）：拓店保持积极，布局长期主义