Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for J&T Express, reflecting confidence in its competitive advantages and growth potential in Southeast Asia and emerging markets like Brazil and the Middle East [1]. Core Insights - J&T's adjusted net profit for 2025 is projected to grow by 112% year-on-year to $425 million, exceeding consensus estimates by 22% and 16% [1]. - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in package volume, particularly in Southeast Asia, where it is projected to capture a 34.4% market share, up by 5.8 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The target price has been raised to HKD 147 from HKD 134, indicating a strong upside potential [1]. Revenue Summary - Total revenue for FY25 is forecasted at $12.158 billion, representing an 18.5% year-on-year growth [3]. - Adjusted net profit for FY25 is estimated at $425.4 million, with an EPS of $4.87 [3]. - The company anticipates continued revenue growth, with projections of $14.117 billion for FY26 and $16.354 billion for FY27 [3]. Operational Highlights - In the first half of 2025, J&T's package volume in Southeast Asia is expected to reach 3.226 billion units, a 57.9% increase year-on-year [2]. - The average selling price (ASP) in Southeast Asia is projected to decrease by 17.9% to $0.61 in 1H25 [2]. - The adjusted EBITDA for the first half of 2025 is forecasted to be $436 million, a 24.2% increase year-on-year [2]. Valuation - The report sets a target EV/EBITDA multiple of 14x for Southeast Asia, reflecting J&T's strong pricing power and market share growth [14]. - For China, a target multiple of 6.5x is established, aligning with major peers [15]. - The overall equity value is estimated at $16.575 billion, leading to a target price of HKD 14.7 [16].
极兔速递-W：2025年收益超出预期；市场份额进一步扩大-20260331