新集能源（601918）：煤炭业务稳健，电力步入收获期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Insights - The company's coal business remains stable, while the power segment is entering a harvest period. In 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 12.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.51%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.14 billion yuan, down 10.74% year-on-year [1][4]. - The coal segment saw an increase in production and sales, with coal output reaching 19.76 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.69%, and sales of 19.69 million tons, up 4.35%. However, coal business revenue decreased by 6.68% to 7.22 billion yuan, despite a significant reduction in operating costs by 12.23%, leading to an improved gross margin [2][10]. - The company is expected to see a recovery in coal prices in 2026, with projected net profits for 2026-2028 estimated at 2.48 billion yuan, 2.61 billion yuan, and 2.79 billion yuan, corresponding to P/E ratios of 8.2X, 7.8X, and 7.3X respectively [4][11]. Financial Performance - In 2025, the company's total assets amounted to 53.04 billion yuan, with total liabilities of 33.69 billion yuan, resulting in a debt-to-asset ratio of 63.5% [12]. - The company reported an EBITDA of 5.24 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit margin of 17.4% [12]. - The projected revenue growth rates for 2026 and 2027 are 24.1% and 15.5% respectively, indicating a positive outlook for the company's financial performance [11]. Operational Highlights - The company has a total coal production capacity of 23.5 million tons per year across five operational mines, with significant reserves of 8.83 billion tons, ensuring sustainable development [10]. - The power generation capacity has also increased, with a total electricity output of 14.61 billion kWh in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12.61% [10]. - The company is actively pursuing coal-electricity integration, with over 50% of its coal production consumed by its power plants, enhancing operational synergies [10].