NHD(SZ:002946) Orient Securities·2026-03-31 05:59Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company and raises the target price to 22.44 CNY from the previous 17.16 CNY [4][6] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 11.23 billion CNY and a net profit of 731 million CNY for the year 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.33% and 36.0% respectively [10] - The strong performance in Q4 2025 is attributed to the success of the low-temperature strategy, with significant growth in low-temperature yogurt and fresh milk, both achieving double-digit growth [10] - The company is expected to continue improving its profitability, with projected EPS for 2026-2028 being 1.02 CNY, 1.23 CNY, and 1.43 CNY respectively [4][10] Financial Information Summary - Revenue (in million CNY) for 2024A to 2028E: 10,665, 11,233, 11,730, 12,258, 12,784 with year-on-year growth rates of -2.9%, 5.3%, 4.4%, 4.5%, and 4.3% respectively [5] - Operating profit (in million CNY) for the same period: 680, 853, 1,069, 1,271, 1,492 with year-on-year growth rates of 33.9%, 25.4%, 25.4%, 18.9%, and 17.4% respectively [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company (in million CNY): 538, 731, 879, 1,054, 1,233 with year-on-year growth rates of 24.8%, 36.0%, 20.2%, 20.0%, and 16.9% respectively [5] - Gross margin percentages are projected to increase from 28.4% in 2024A to 31.2% in 2028E [5] - Net margin percentages are expected to rise from 5.0% in 2024A to 9.6% in 2028E [5] - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio is projected to decrease from 28.9 in 2024A to 12.6 in 2028E [5]