新城控股（601155）：减值压力持续缓解，商管支撑盈利韧性

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 53.01 billion yuan in 2025, a decrease of 40.4% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 680.11 million yuan, down 9.6% year-on-year [7] - Despite revenue pressure, the profit structure has improved, with the gross profit margin increasing to 27.4%, up 7.6 percentage points year-on-year, supported by a higher proportion of commercial income [7] - The company’s commercial management income grew by 8.4% year-on-year to 13.04 billion yuan, with a stable gross margin of 69.8% [7] - The company’s leverage ratio decreased to 70.8%, down 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, and the average financing cost fell to 5.44%, a decrease of 48 basis points [7] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2026 and 2027 is adjusted to 757 million yuan and 926 million yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2028 at 1.07 billion yuan [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2024 is 88.99 billion yuan, with a projected decline in subsequent years [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 680.11 million yuan in 2025, with a gradual increase in the following years [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 0.30 yuan, with an expected increase to 0.48 yuan by 2028 [1] - The company’s total assets are projected to decrease from 265.64 billion yuan in 2025 to 205.76 billion yuan by 2028 [8]