南华期货镍、不锈钢2026二季度展望：政策托底，随势而动

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - In Q1 2026, the global nickel and stainless - steel markets showed a co - existence of an upward - shifted valuation center and wide - range fluctuations. The core contradiction in the industry chain was the all - around tightening of Indonesian nickel ore policies, leading to a supply structural reversal and damaged production stability [1]. - In Q2 2026, the biggest potential variable in the market is the actual approval progress of Indonesian nickel ore quotas and marginal policy adjustments. The nickel policy in Indonesia still has certain bullish support for the bottom center in Q2. The cost bottom is significantly lifted due to the proposed export tariff and windfall tax on nickel. In Q2, Indonesia and the Philippines will gradually emerge from the rainy season, and the downstream production will increase. The shortage of sulfur in the hydrometallurgical process may have an impact as early as Q2. Macro - level factors such as the development of the US - Iran war and the release of US core data need to be continuously monitored [2]. - In Q2 2026, it is relatively difficult for stainless steel to have a significant independent market. The key lies in the de - stocking during the traditional consumption peak season and the transmission of macro - policies. If the terminal procurement orders are effectively released and drive the high - level social inventory into a continuous de - stocking channel, the spot price may rise moderately under cost support. Overall, the stainless - steel market in Q2 will be range - bound between 13,000 and 14,500 yuan/ton, following the guidance of Shanghai nickel and macro - level factors [2][4]. - It is expected that the core fluctuation range of the main Shanghai nickel contract in Q2 will be between 130,000 and 150,000 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Q1 Market Review - In Q1, the market price was strongly pushed up by a series of strong logics. From late November last year to late January, the market pricing was unilaterally dominated by the "strong expectation" of a significant contraction in Indonesian supply. The expected RKAB quota in 2026 was 250 - 260 million tons, about 30% lower than that in 2025. With the Shanghai nickel price hitting a low of 110,000 yuan, the market price soared. LME nickel broke through the resistance level of $18,785/ton, and the main Shanghai nickel contract reached a high of 152,000 yuan/ton [10]. - From February to the end of the quarter, the sharp rise driven by sentiment and supply - side contraction expectations encountered strong resistance from the real fundamentals. During the traditional off - season around the Chinese Spring Festival, the mid - and downstream had low acceptance of raw materials, and the refined nickel inventory increased due to sufficient profits. The large amount of visible inventory and the damaged downstream transmission mechanism led to a stalemate in the spot market. After the festival, as the news of expanding production by allowing some compliant mining enterprises to increase quotas came out, the bullish sentiment cooled down, and the market fluctuated around 136,000 yuan with strong policy support at the bottom [10][11]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Performance 3.2.1 Nickel Ore - In Q1, the premium of the nickel ore end was the core driver for the cost increase of the entire nickel industry chain. The expectation of quota reduction had a profound impact, and the panic about quota issuance exceeded the actual impact on production. The price of Indonesian nickel ore continued to rise, and some Indonesian projects imported from the Philippines, pushing up the raw material cost. The market was in a situation of weak supply and demand due to the rainy season in the Philippines and the pre - holiday stocking in the Chinese market. The strategic intention of Indonesia's quota reduction was to control the quantity and raise the price to strengthen its global pricing power [15][16]. - In Q2, the nickel ore production and port shipments in the Philippines are expected to increase seasonally. The nickel ore inventory at Chinese ports is likely to stabilize and rebound. However, the mining cost in Indonesia and the Philippines has increased, and the scarcity of high - grade nickel ore has intensified. The approval of RKAB in Indonesia is expected to speed up, and the panic in the ore market may be alleviated. The nickel ore price will remain high, forming a solid cost base for the industry chain [17]. 3.2.2 Ferronickel - In Q1, the ferronickel market had a significant cost - driven upward trend. The strong expectation of reduced ore supply was quickly transmitted to the ferronickel end, pushing up the price. Affected by the tightened supply of nickel ore from Indonesia and the Philippines, the cash cost of ferronickel smelting enterprises increased sharply, and the production in China and Indonesia declined. The import volume of Indonesian ferronickel decreased, and traders continued to raise prices. At the same time, the substitution economy of scrap stainless steel increased [22]. - In Q2, the ferronickel market will enter a complex stage of two - way supply - demand game. The supply is expected to increase marginally as the nickel ore shipments from the Philippines recover seasonally and the quota approval in Indonesia speeds up. However, the demand is uncertain as the downstream stainless - steel market has difficulty supporting high raw material prices, and the cost advantage of scrap stainless steel over ferronickel is prominent. The ferronickel price is strongly supported by high - cost raw materials, but it is difficult to break through further [23]. 3.2.3 Nickel Sulfate and Intermediates - In Q1, the nickel sulfate and related intermediate product market was frequently disturbed, but the industry maintained a production - based - on - sales operation mode. The supply was restricted by the tightened nickel ore quota in Indonesia and a safety accident in the wet - smelting park. The market supply of intermediate products was extremely tight, and the discount coefficient of MHP to LME nickel remained high. On the demand side, some domestic battery and ternary precursor enterprises rushed to export, driving up the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate [32]. - In Q2, the supply of nickel sulfate and intermediates faces uncertainties due to the potential impact of the Middle - East geopolitical situation on sulfur imports. The demand may decline as the impulse demand from pre - export rush fades. The price transmission from the upstream cost increase to the terminal may be limited. The long - term impact of the trade agreement between Indonesia and the US on Chinese enterprises in Indonesia needs to be continuously monitored [32][34][35]. 3.2.4 Stainless Steel - In Q1, the stainless - steel market had limited independent trends, and the price followed the fluctuations of Shanghai nickel and Indonesian policy disturbances. The price increase driven by cost was not effectively supported by terminal demand. Due to the Spring Festival and the traditional off - season, the price transmission to the terminal was difficult, and the inventory accumulated. Only after the mid - March resumption of work in the mid - and downstream did the inventory start to decline [40]. - In Q2, the key is the de - stocking rate during the "Golden March and Silver April" consumption peak season and the acceptance of the current price by the downstream. If the terminal demand is effectively stimulated, the spot price may rise. However, the stainless - steel export still faces trade barriers. The price bottom is firm, but whether it can stabilize above 14,200 yuan depends on the demand [40]. 3.3 Q2 Balance Explanation - On the supply side, the core logic in Q2 is the bottleneck in the RKAB quota issuance in Indonesia and the multiple uncertainties in raw material supply. The new digital quota approval system in Indonesia has led to a long approval time, and the actual approved nickel ore volume is far lower than expected. The impact of the US - Iran conflict on sulfur imports may cause production cuts or shutdowns in the Indonesian wet - smelting industry as early as April [52][53]. - On the demand side, Q2 is the traditional peak consumption season for the stainless - steel industry. The recovery of terminal demand is the core. The demand in the real - estate sector is still weak, but the home - appliance sector is recovering as expected. Steel mills may rush to replenish inventory if the price is appropriate. In the new - energy field, the sales of new - energy vehicles usually pick up after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, and the price of nickel sulfate is supported by seasonal demand and strong cost [54].