深圳燃气（601139）：燃气资源与综合能源贡献增量

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of RMB 8.70 [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 29.801 billion for 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 5.12%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 1.408 billion, a decrease of 3.37% year-over-year [6][10]. - The company experienced significant growth in its natural gas wholesale business, with a supply volume of 7.629 billion cubic meters, up 16% year-over-year, and wholesale sales volume doubling to 1.538 billion cubic meters [7]. - The urban gas segment showed steady growth, with pipeline natural gas sales reaching 5.127 billion cubic meters, a 3.1% increase year-over-year, and the company expanded its customer base to 8.7765 million users [8]. - The comprehensive energy segment benefited from the commissioning of new power generation units, with revenue from this segment reaching RMB 5.401 billion, a 7.47% increase year-over-year [9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2025, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 29.801 billion, with a slight increase in revenue forecasted for the following years [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to grow to RMB 2.060 billion by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14% from 2026 to 2028 [10]. Business Segments - The natural gas wholesale business saw a revenue increase of 54% year-over-year, with a gross margin of 29%, significantly up by 17 percentage points [7]. - The urban gas segment's sales volume in the Greater Bay Area reached 2.939 billion cubic meters, reflecting a 5.4% increase year-over-year [8]. - The comprehensive energy segment's revenue from power generation increased by 40.62% year-over-year, driven by the commissioning of new gas-fired power units [9]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 14.85 in 2025 to 10.15 by 2028, indicating a favorable valuation trend [5]. - The expected dividend yield is projected to increase from 2.20% in 2025 to 4.92% by 2028, reflecting a positive outlook for shareholder returns [5].