舍得酒业（600702）：2025Q4延续调整，利润率有所承压

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][14]. Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and profit in 2025, with total revenue of 4.42 billion yuan, down 17.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 223 million yuan, down 35.5% year-on-year [1][4]. - The ordinary liquor segment showed growth, with revenue increasing by 5.75% year-on-year, while the mid-to-high-end liquor segment saw a decline of 23.83% [2]. - The company is focusing on inventory reduction and product optimization to stabilize its core markets and improve revenue growth in the coming years [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2025, the company reported total revenue of 4.42 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 223 million yuan, down 35.5% year-on-year [5]. - The fourth quarter of 2025 saw total revenue of 718 million yuan, a decline of 20% year-on-year, with a net loss of 249 million yuan, although this was an improvement from the previous year [1][3]. - The overall net profit margin for 2025 was 5.0%, down 1.41 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to product mix pressures and increased sales expenses [3]. Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor was 3.12 billion yuan, down 23.83% year-on-year, while ordinary liquor revenue was 733 million yuan, up 5.75% year-on-year [2]. - The sales volume for 2025 was approximately 31,000 tons, remaining stable year-on-year, but the average price per ton decreased by 19.5% [2]. - The company’s revenue from the domestic market was 1.21 billion yuan, down 20.19% year-on-year, while revenue from outside the province was 2.65 billion yuan, down 19.25% year-on-year [2]. Future Outlook - For 2026, the company expects a gradual recovery in revenue growth, projecting total revenue of 4.43 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 382 million yuan, an increase of 71.4% year-on-year [4][9]. - The company aims to improve its profit margins by reducing promotional expenses and stabilizing tax rates, with net profit growth expected to outpace revenue growth [4]. - The projected revenue for 2027 and 2028 is 4.82 billion yuan and 5.18 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.8% and 7.6% [4][9].