古茗（01364.HK）2025 年报点评

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 36.01, compared to the current price of HKD 27.26 [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of HKD 12.91 billion for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 46.9%. The adjusted net profit reached HKD 2.57 billion, up 66.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 3.11 billion, reflecting a significant increase of 110.3% [2][4]. - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, driven by internal product expansion and a robust store opening strategy, with plans to maintain the same level of store openings in 2026 and expand into new regions [10]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Growth: The company achieved a total revenue of HKD 12,914 million in 2025, with projected revenues of HKD 15,930 million in 2026, HKD 20,119 million in 2027, and HKD 24,395 million in 2028, indicating growth rates of 23.4%, 26.3%, and 21.3% respectively [4]. - Net Profit: The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow from HKD 3,109 million in 2025 to HKD 3,290 million in 2026, HKD 4,192 million in 2027, and HKD 5,148 million in 2028, with growth rates of 5.8%, 27.4%, and 22.8% respectively [4]. - Profit Margins: The gross margin improved from 30.6% in 2024 to 33.0% in 2025, with adjusted profit margins also showing positive trends [10]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): The EPS is projected to increase from HKD 1.31 in 2025 to HKD 1.38 in 2026, HKD 1.76 in 2027, and HKD 2.16 in 2028 [4]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has expanded its store count significantly, adding 3,640 new stores in 2025, bringing the total to 13,554, with a notable presence in lower-tier cities [10]. - The introduction of new product categories, particularly coffee, has contributed to improved store performance, with average daily GMV reaching HKD 7,800 per store, a year-on-year increase of 21.3% [10]. - The company has also demonstrated a commitment to returning value to shareholders, proposing a final dividend of HKD 0.50 per share, totaling approximately HKD 1.189 billion [10].