北方国际（000065）：减值减少驱动Q4净利率改善，煤价回暖有望带动业绩增长提速

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company's revenue for 2025 is projected to be 13.55 billion yuan, a decrease of 29% year-on-year, with a net profit of 723 million yuan, down 31% year-on-year. This decline is attributed to low coal prices affecting trade volumes and profits, as well as a decrease in engineering business scale due to high base effects from the previous year [1]. - In Q4, the company experienced a smaller decline in net profit compared to revenue, primarily due to a reduction in impairment losses by 400 million yuan year-on-year [1]. - The company’s overall gross margin improved to 14.28%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points, driven by higher margins in engineering and power operations [1]. - The company’s cash flow remains strong, with a net inflow of 1.05 billion yuan for the year, an increase of 400 million yuan year-on-year, indicating a net cash ratio of 145% [1]. Revenue and Profitability - The company’s quarterly revenue for 2025 is expected to be 3.65 billion yuan in Q1, 3.08 billion yuan in Q2, 3.18 billion yuan in Q3, and 3.64 billion yuan in Q4, reflecting year-on-year declines of 27%, 43%, 14%, and 27% respectively [1]. - The engineering construction, resource equipment, power operation, and industrial manufacturing segments reported revenues of 6.3 billion, 5.4 billion, 500 million, and 1.2 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -24%, -39%, +15%, and a slight decline [1]. Future Outlook - The company’s coal trading volume for 2025 is projected to be 4.48 million tons, a decrease of 13% year-on-year. However, the recovery in coal prices is expected to significantly improve profitability in the upcoming quarters [2]. - The power operation segment is anticipated to generate revenues of 500 million yuan and gross profits of 360 million yuan in 2025, representing increases of 15% and 33% respectively, driven by the performance of wind power projects [3]. - The company plans to expand its overseas power asset portfolio, which is expected to enhance its business model and drive growth [3]. Financial Projections - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are 954 million, 1.061 billion, and 1.157 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 31.8%, 11.3%, and 9.1% [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for the same years are projected to be 0.82, 0.91, and 1.00 yuan per share, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 17, 15, and 14 times [4].