ZHBIO(SZ:300653) HTSC·2026-04-01 04:35Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 22.14 [1][5]. Core Insights - The company's 2025 revenue and net profit are expected to be RMB 364 million and RMB 82.41 million, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.3% and a decline of 38.8% [1]. - The performance in Q4 2025 showed improvement with revenue and net profit increasing by 23.0% and 56.6% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend as the demand for consumer healthcare recovers [1][5]. - The company faces challenges in 2025 due to tax rate adjustments, slow recovery in consumer medical demand, and increased competition in products like oral repair membranes [1][2]. Revenue and Profitability - The oral repair membrane revenue for 2025 is projected at RMB 136 million, down 15.8% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 88.14% [2]. - The new product, active biological bone, has started contributing revenue, achieving sales of RMB 32.15 million by the end of 2025, while the revenue from the membrane products grew by 12.4% year-on-year [3]. - The overall gross margin for 2025 is expected to decline to 85.88%, primarily due to increased market competition and the impact of centralized procurement [4]. Expense and Forecast Adjustments - The company has seen an increase in various expense ratios, with sales, management, and R&D expenses rising significantly [4]. - The profit forecast for 2026-2028 has been adjusted downwards, with expected net profits of RMB 93 million, RMB 103 million, and RMB 115 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.5%, 11.4%, and 11.1% respectively [5][13]. - The valuation for 2026 is set at 43x PE, compared to the industry average of 33x, indicating a premium valuation based on the company's growth prospects [5][13].