长白山（603099）：25Q4业绩短暂承压，长期增长潜力犹存

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 788 million for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.98%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 129 million, a decrease of 10.33% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2025 saw a temporary pressure on performance, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to improvements in external transportation and internal project expansions that are expected to attract more visitors [4][9] - The company has adjusted its earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2026-2028 to RMB 0.62, 0.71, and 0.82, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 57.5, 49.6, and 43.2 times. The scarcity of snow resources and favorable snow tourism policies are expected to support long-term growth [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2025, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 788 million, with a growth rate of 6.0%. The EBITDA was RMB 261 million, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 129 million, reflecting a decline of 10.3% [8][9] - The fourth quarter of 2025 recorded a revenue of RMB 1.52 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 1.95%, but the net profit was a loss of RMB 0.20 billion, indicating a significant decline compared to the previous year [9] Business Segments - The company's tourism transportation, hotel, travel agency, and other businesses generated revenues of RMB 5.2 million, RMB 1.6 million, RMB 0.6 million, and RMB 0.5 million, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -3.3%, +15.7%, +97.0%, and +41.2% [9] - The overall gross margin decreased by 4.2 percentage points due to a shift in revenue structure towards lower-margin hotel operations [9] Growth Drivers - The company is innovating its business model, with new projects like the Endu Li business travel community and the Yun Ding market attracting significant visitor numbers. The ongoing construction of the second phase of the volcanic hot spring project is expected to be completed by the end of 2026, which will further enhance visitor traffic [9] - The opening of the Shenbai high-speed railway and the G331 Jilin section in September 2025 has significantly improved access to the scenic area, leading to a 20% year-on-year increase in visitor numbers in the first two months of 2026 [9]