Vipshop(US:VIPS) CMS·2026-04-01 07:19Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Vipshop (VIPS.N) with a target price of $20.6, compared to the current stock price of $18 [3][5]. Core Insights - Vipshop's Q1 revenue is expected to grow by 0.5% year-on-year, with a gross margin projected to remain above 23%. The Non-GAAP net profit margin is anticipated to be around 8.5% [2][3]. - The company is expected to maintain a stable long-term value due to its advantages in authentic discount sales and supply chain management, alongside ongoing shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks [2][5]. - The offline business is experiencing rapid growth, with the potential issuance of REITs expected to drive a revaluation of the company's assets [2][5]. Financial Data Summary - Revenue Forecast: - 2024: 108,421 million - 2025: 105,920 million - 2026: 108,171 million - 2027: 110,334 million - 2028: 111,772 million - Year-on-year growth rates are projected to be -3.9% for 2024 and -2.3% for 2025, with a return to positive growth in subsequent years [3][8]. - Net Profit Forecast (Non-GAAP): - 2024: 9,034 million - 2025: 8,798 million - 2026: 9,129 million - 2027: 9,435 million - 2028: 9,662 million - Year-on-year growth rates are projected to be -5.0% for 2024 and -2.6% for 2025, with growth resuming in later years [3][8]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2024: 15.09 - 2025: 15.12 - 2026: 16.90 - 2027: 17.47 - 2028: 17.91 [3][8]. - Key Financial Ratios: - Gross Margin: Expected to be around 23.5% in 2026 - Net Margin: Expected to be 7.5% in 2026 - Return on Equity (ROE): Expected to decline from 19.4% in 2024 to 13.4% in 2028 [9]. Stock Performance - The stock has shown an absolute performance of 9.1% over the last month, 17.6% over six months, and 20.0% over the past year [5].