TIANSHAN ALUMINUM(SZ:002532) Guolian Minsheng Securities·2026-04-01 07:25Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianshan Aluminum [3] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 29.5 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.0%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.818 billion yuan, up 8.1% year-on-year [9] - The company expects significant profit growth in Q1 2026, with a projected net profit of 2.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 107.9% [9] - The report highlights the gradual release of new production capacity and the improvement in profitability of electrolytic aluminum [9] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2028 are as follows: 29.5 billion yuan (2025), 36.6 billion yuan (2026), 37.8 billion yuan (2027), and 38.4 billion yuan (2028) [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow from 4.818 billion yuan in 2025 to 10.468 billion yuan in 2028, with growth rates of 8.1%, 92.6%, 8.1%, and 4.3% respectively [2] - Earnings per share are expected to increase from 1.04 yuan in 2025 to 2.26 yuan in 2028 [2] Production and Cost Analysis - The company produced 1.186 million tons of electrolytic aluminum in 2025, a slight increase of 0.8% year-on-year, while alumina production rose by 10.4% to 2.515 million tons [9] - The average price of aluminum in 2025 was 20,721 yuan per ton, up 4.0% year-on-year, with a projected price of 24,024 yuan per ton in Q1 2026 [9] - The production cost of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 6.7% to 12,700 yuan per ton, primarily due to lower energy costs [9] Strategic Developments - The company is advancing a new electrolytic aluminum production capacity of 200,000 tons, expected to be fully operational by the first half of 2026 [9] - Tianshan Aluminum is expanding its strategic layout in Indonesia with a planned investment of 1.556 billion USD for a 2 million ton alumina production line [9] - The company has secured a 50% stake in Elite Mining Guinea S.A. and exclusive purchasing rights for bauxite, enhancing its resource supply [9]