天润乳业（600419）：Q4收入增速转正，复苏趋势初显

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 2.752 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 1.87%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 41.48 million yuan, down 4.99% year-on-year. However, the fourth quarter of 2025 showed signs of recovery with a revenue of 678 million yuan, an increase of 4.59% year-on-year, and a net profit of 52.10 million yuan, up 143.56% year-on-year [2][4] - The company has successfully optimized its dairy herd structure, leading to improved operational efficiency. By the end of 2025, the company owned 50,100 dairy cows, with an average annual yield of over 12 tons per cow. The dairy processing project with an annual capacity of 200,000 tons has commenced trial production, contributing to a total dairy product output of 307,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.21% [4] - The company plans to achieve a dairy product sales volume of 320,000 tons in 2026, with an expected revenue of 3 billion yuan. The forecasted EPS for 2026-2028 is 0.16, 0.32, and 0.49 yuan, corresponding to P/E ratios of 60X, 30X, and 19X respectively, indicating a positive outlook for sustained recovery [4][5] Financial Summary - In 2025, the company reported total revenue of 2.752 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -1.9%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 41 million yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 5%. The gross margin for 2025 was 16.1% [5] - The company expects to see revenue growth of 9.2% in 2026, reaching 3 billion yuan, and further growth in subsequent years, with projected revenues of 3.263 billion yuan in 2027 and 3.526 billion yuan in 2028 [5][6] - The projected EPS for 2026 is 0.16 yuan, increasing to 0.32 yuan in 2027 and 0.49 yuan in 2028, reflecting a positive trend in profitability [5][6]