新乳业（002946）：25Q4收入超预期、全年净利率提升1.5pct

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 11.23 billion yuan for FY25, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.3%, and a net profit of 730 million yuan, up 36.0% year-on-year [2] - In Q4 25, the company achieved a revenue of 2.8 billion yuan, which is an 11.3% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 110 million yuan, reflecting a 69.3% year-on-year growth [2] - The revenue exceeded market expectations, and the overall performance met market forecasts [2] Revenue Analysis - For FY25, the revenue breakdown by product shows liquid milk at 10.5 billion yuan (up 6.7%), milk powder at 90 million yuan (up 21.6%), and other products at 650 million yuan (down 14.0%) [3] - The revenue by region for FY25 indicates that Southwest and East China were the main growth drivers, with revenues of 3.83 billion yuan (0.0% growth) and 3.52 billion yuan (up 15.0%) respectively [3] - The revenue by sales model shows a decline in distribution revenue by 7.2% to 3.42 billion yuan, while direct sales increased by 15.1% to 7.16 billion yuan [3] Profitability and Margins - The gross margin for Q4 25 was 28.4%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the FY25 gross margin was 29.2%, up 0.8 percentage points [4] - The company experienced a significant improvement in gross margin due to scale effects and structural improvements [4] - The net profit margin for Q4 25 was 3.9%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, and for FY25, it was 6.5%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points [5] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a strong revenue growth trend into Q1 26, laying a foundation for accelerated revenue growth for the full year [6] - Revenue forecasts for 26-27 have been adjusted upwards, with FY26 revenue now projected at 12.15 billion yuan and FY27 at 13 billion yuan [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 26-27 have also been revised, with FY26 EPS now at 1.04 yuan and FY27 at 1.24 yuan [6]