Luckin Coffee(LKNCY) 浦银国际·2024-07-04 05:47Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of $23 7, implying a potential upside of 22 2% from the current price of $19 4 [2][3] Core Views - Luckin Coffee has become the largest chain coffee brand in China, surpassing Starbucks in both store count and order volume, driven by strong brand marketing, product innovation, and affordable pricing [3] - The company has successfully transformed from a loss-making, credibility-damaged company to a profitable and rapidly expanding brand, focusing on product innovation, youth-oriented marketing, and cost-effective strategies [3] - Luckin Coffee's future growth potential lies in its ability to consolidate the market, expand into lower-tier cities, and explore overseas markets, despite short-term pressure on profitability due to intense competition [3] Industry Overview - The Chinese coffee market has grown significantly, with the overall market size reaching RMB 82 8 billion in 2023, and per capita coffee consumption reaching RMB 58 8 [12] - Ready-to-drink (RTD) coffee shops have become the primary channel for coffee consumption in China, contributing 66 5% of the total retail coffee market revenue in 2023, far exceeding instant coffee and RTD coffee [14] - The rise of RTD coffee shops in China is attributed to urbanization, the influence of Western lifestyles, the role of social media, and the addictive nature of coffee [15] Luckin Coffee's Strategy - Luckin Coffee has disrupted the traditional coffee market by offering a wide variety of products at affordable prices, making RTD coffee more accessible to the general public [3] - The company has focused on product innovation, such as the introduction of coconut latte and sauce-flavored latte, which have become viral hits on social media [3][25] - Luckin Coffee has adopted a franchise model to expand into lower-tier cities, with 5,620 franchise stores accounting for 34 6% of its total store count by the end of 2023 [35] Market Competition - Starbucks and Luckin Coffee have been the key players driving the development of the Chinese RTD coffee market, with Starbucks establishing the premium image of RTD coffee and Luckin Coffee making it more accessible to the masses [16] - The Chinese coffee market is becoming more segmented, with the emergence of both mass-market and premium coffee brands catering to different consumer needs [44] - Starbucks' market share in China has been declining since 2017, as new players like Luckin Coffee and other mass-market brands have gained traction [47] Future Growth Potential - The penetration rate of coffee in lower-tier cities is expected to continue rising, driven by increasing consumer acceptance, economic development, and the return of young people from higher-tier cities [35] - The high-tier cities are experiencing a trend of consumption stratification, with consumers becoming more price-sensitive and demanding higher quality and more diverse coffee products [39] - The Chinese coffee market is expected to continue growing, with the RTD coffee market projected to reach RMB 52 5 billion by 2026, driven by the expansion of mass-market brands and the rise of premium coffee brands [38] Financial Performance - Luckin Coffee's revenue is expected to grow from RMB 24 9 billion in 2023 to RMB 52 5 billion in 2026, with net profit increasing from RMB 2 8 billion to RMB 5 1 billion over the same period [4] - The company's gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 55%, with operating margin improving from 12 1% in 2023 to 11 9% in 2026 [8] - Luckin Coffee's valuation is considered attractive compared to international coffee chains and large-scale Chinese restaurant chains, with potential for further upside if the company relists on a major stock exchange [3]