wanhua(SH:600309) Guohai Securities·2024-02-20 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Wanhua Chemical [1]. Core Views - Wanhua Chemical achieved steady growth in 2023, with total revenue of 175.4 billion yuan, up 5.92% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 16.814 billion yuan, up 3.57% year-on-year [16]. - The company is focusing on technological innovation and operational excellence to build competitive advantages in the chemical industry, positioning itself among global chemical giants [4]. - The report highlights the importance of product price differentials in determining short-term profitability and emphasizes the company's ability to innovate and grow in the long term [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2023, Wanhua Chemical reported revenue of 42.807 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.80%, while net profit was 4.111 billion yuan, up 56.58% year-on-year [16]. - The company forecasts net profits of 16.814 billion, 21.981 billion, and 30.872 billion yuan for 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 14, 11, and 8 [11]. Price Differential Index - As of February 18, 2024, the price differential index for Wanhua Chemical was 72.81, down 0.29 percentage points from Q4 2023, placing it in the historical 9.03 percentile [5][20]. Project Developments - Wanhua Chemical has received environmental approval for an 80,000-ton/year MDI capacity expansion project, which will double the existing capacity [19][28]. - The company has also established a joint venture with Foster and Trina Solar to manufacture and sell POE particles, with Wanhua holding a 51% stake [7][28]. Market Trends - The report notes an increase in domestic refrigerator and automobile production, while new housing starts have declined [10][9]. - The average price of polymer MDI in January 2024 was 15,652 yuan/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.48% [8].