润滑油添加剂新星崛起，国产替代加速产能扩张

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating strong growth potential [42] Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading domestic lubricant additive manufacturer with rapid capacity expansion and product certification [42] - The global lubricant additive market is valued at over $100 billion, with the company's market share rapidly increasing due to domestic substitution [42] - The company has established stable relationships with major downstream lubricant companies, enhancing its market position [42] Industry Overview - China has become a net exporter of lubricant additives in 2023, with imports decreasing to 203,000 tons and exports increasing to 208,000 tons [3] - The top four export destinations for China's lubricant additives in 2023 were Russia, Singapore, UAE, and South Korea, accounting for 77% of total exports [4] - The global lubricant additive market is expected to reach 5.7 million tons by 2025, with a market size of $19.5 billion [120] Company Analysis - The company has a total existing capacity of 378,000 tons and a planned capacity of 100,000 tons, with significant expansion in both domestic and international markets [2] - The company has achieved breakthroughs in product certification, including CI-4, CK-4, SN, and SP grades, which are critical for entering major customer supply chains [42] - The company's revenue grew from 530 million RMB in 2018 to 3.046 billion RMB in 2022, with a compound annual growth rate of 54.83% [56] Market Position - The company has entered the supply chains of major lubricant companies such as Shell, ExxonMobil, Total, Sinopec, and PetroChina, which is expected to drive further growth [42] - The company's lubricant additive sales reached 143,100 tons in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 112.35%, driven by the shift towards compound additives [56] - The company's overseas revenue grew from 98 million RMB in 2018 to 1.585 billion RMB in 2022, with a compound annual growth rate of 103.27% [126] Financial Performance - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 628 million RMB in 2023, 810 million RMB in 2024, and 1.055 billion RMB in 2025 [44] - The company's gross margin increased from 25% in 2018 to 34% in the first three quarters of 2023, driven by the rising proportion of lubricant additives in its product mix [127] - The company's R&D expense ratio increased from 2% in 2018 to 4% in the first three quarters of 2023, reflecting its commitment to innovation [127]