HDPI(SH:600027) Minsheng Securities·2024-02-17 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Cautious Recommendation" rating for the company [5][3]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.15-4.98 billion yuan for 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.40-4.86 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 3477.6%-4193.1% [2][3]. - The fourth quarter of 2023 is anticipated to show a net profit ranging from a loss of 349 million yuan to a profit of 481 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year improvement [2]. - The decline in electricity generation and the impact of cost settlements are expected to affect the fourth quarter performance, but year-on-year improvements are still anticipated [2][3]. Financial Forecasts - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 107.06 billion yuan in 2022 to 116.50 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 2.8% [4][9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 100 million yuan in 2022 to 6.01 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a significant recovery [4][9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.45 yuan for 2023, 0.56 yuan for 2024, and 0.59 yuan for 2025, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 12.9, 10.4, and 9.9 [3][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the company's thermal power segment is likely to continue improving in 2024, supported by declining coal prices and the rapid development of its investment in Huadian New Energy [3][2]. - The target prices are set at 6.72 yuan for A-shares and 4.31 yuan for H-shares, based on historical valuation levels [5][3].