高端酒销售承压，高端化节奏放缓

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 14.815 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 5.53%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.337 billion yuan, up 5.78% year-on-year. However, the fourth quarter of 2023 saw a revenue decline of 3.76% year-on-year, with a net profit loss of 7.49 million yuan, indicating a shift from profit to loss [3][4] - The company's net profit margin remained stable year-on-year at 9.02%, failing to continue the previous trend of improving profitability. This stagnation is attributed to several factors, including pressure on high-end liquor sales, increased barley procurement costs, and higher marketing and advertising expenses in a weak consumption environment [3][6][7] - The company is currently in a reform and adjustment phase, with a slowdown in the pace of high-end product development and increased marketing expenditures. The earnings forecast for 2023-2025 has been revised downwards, with expected revenues of 14.82 billion yuan, 15.70 billion yuan, and 16.71 billion yuan for the respective years [3][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a total revenue of 14.815 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.53%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.337 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.78% increase year-on-year. The fourth quarter revenue was 1.786 billion yuan, down 3.76% year-on-year, with a net profit loss of 7.49 million yuan [3][4] Cost and Expense Analysis - The company faced significant cost pressures in 2023 due to a sharp increase in barley procurement prices, while packaging costs remained relatively stable. Despite some cost-reduction measures, the overall gross margin is expected to decline year-on-year [6][7] Market and Product Strategy - High-end liquor sales have been under pressure, leading to a slowdown in product structure upgrades. The company plans to continue focusing on core products and expanding into larger cities with high growth potential, while also investing in brand building for products like Wusu [5][7] Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for 2023-2025 has been adjusted to reflect a more conservative outlook, with expected revenues of 14.82 billion yuan, 15.70 billion yuan, and 16.71 billion yuan, and net profits of 1.34 billion yuan, 1.46 billion yuan, and 1.59 billion yuan respectively [8][9]