Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for its growth potential and stability in the market [28]. Core Viewpoints - The company has a solid foundation in the canned food industry and is well-positioned to benefit from the growing coconut beverage market, particularly with its brand "Coconut Shark" [28][44]. - The report highlights the shift in consumer demand towards high-quality, cost-effective products, which aligns with the company's strategy to expand in the rapidly growing bulk snack channel [28][45]. - The company is expected to achieve stable revenue growth, with projected earnings per share (EPS) of 0.62, 0.82, and 1.09 yuan for 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively [28]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Logic - The company has been in the canned food industry since 2001 and has expanded into the plant-based beverage market, leveraging its geographical advantages [43]. - The coconut beverage market has seen significant growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% from 2017 to 2021, indicating strong demand for coconut water and juice [44]. 2. Industry Overview - The canned food market in China is substantial, with a market size exceeding 100 billion yuan, yet remains fragmented with low concentration [28][44]. - The coconut beverage sector is experiencing a surge in demand, particularly for coconut water, driven by health-conscious consumers [44]. 3. Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are 1.92 billion yuan in 2023, 2.48 billion yuan in 2024, and 3.26 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 20.4%, 28.8%, and 31.5% respectively [25]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 278 million yuan in 2023, with a growth rate of 36.9% [25][13]. 4. Cost and Profitability - The report anticipates stable cost management, with operating costs for coconut beverages projected to increase at a slower rate compared to revenue growth, enhancing profitability [12][13]. - The gross profit margin for coconut beverages is expected to remain strong, reflecting the company's ability to manage costs effectively while capitalizing on market demand [14].
深度报告：基本盘稳定，新品新渠道可期