JIN LEI(SZ:300443) Huafu Securities·2024-02-07 16:00Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 27.71 CNY per share [3][20]. Core Insights - The company is the global leader in the wind power spindle industry and is increasing its large-scale casting capacity to create a second growth curve. The company has a market share of 31% in 2022 [14][28]. - The demand for wind spindles is expected to remain high, with a favorable competitive landscape. The overall wind power demand is projected to grow significantly due to the carbon neutrality context, particularly in offshore wind power [14][8]. - The forging business is solid, and the casting business is set to ramp up production. The company has established a strong customer base and product pricing power, which will support its profitability [14][8]. Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue is projected to grow from 1,812 million CNY in 2022 to 3,902 million CNY by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34% [2]. - Net profit is expected to recover from 352 million CNY in 2022 to 891 million CNY in 2025, with a CAGR of 36% [2][14]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to increase from 1.08 CNY in 2022 to 2.74 CNY in 2025 [2][14]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 16.3 in 2022 to 6.5 in 2025, indicating an attractive valuation [2][14]. Business Segments - Forging Spindle Business: The company expects a slight increase in output from 141,000 tons in 2023 to 152,000 tons in 2025, with a stable pricing trend [7][82]. - Free Forging Business: The output is anticipated to grow significantly, from 27,000 tons in 2023 to 48,000 tons in 2025, with stable pricing [7][83]. - Casting Business: The company expects rapid growth in casting output, from 19,000 tons in 2023 to 147,000 tons in 2025, benefiting from new capacity coming online [7][84].